764
FXUS61 KPBZ 031856
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
156 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES REMOVED, SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO OVERALL
PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION FOR THE WEEK (INCREASE AND SMALL
SHIFT NORTH)
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN CONTINUES. SMALL POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING SOUTH OF THE
MASON-DIXON LINE
2) PERIODIC WAVES OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE SATURDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SEVERAL MORE WAVES OF RAIN WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT AS A FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME JET ENHANCED
ASCENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT FROM N-S AS THE FRONT SINKS SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE EVENING WAVE. WPC HAS A MARGINAL
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAIN JUST NORTH OF THE PA/WV BORDER AND SOUTH,
BUT HAVE HELD OFF OF AN AREAL FLOOD WATCH BASED OFF LATEST HI-
RES GUIDANCE, AND RAINFALL RATES OVERALL BEING RELATIVELY
MODEST.
KEY MESSAGE 2... WARM, MOIST ADVECTION OVERRIDING A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT PROGGED TO WAVER IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL MAINTAIN PERIODIC SHOWERS OVER THE COURSE OF
THE WEEK. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT, WITH A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT THATS TAPPED INTO
GULF MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN AFFECTING
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. CURRENT ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS
INDICATE ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS BY LATE WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL
TO REACH ACTION STAGE. WILL MONITOR HOW QPF EVOLVES THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH THE LONG DURATION EVENT.
FLAT RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD DRIVE THE FRONT TO THE NORTH BY
FRIDAY NIGHT, AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS
ONTARIO SATURDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE
THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT, MODELS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AND
INCREASING SHEAR THROUGH THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. WARM AIR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD ALSO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CURRENTLY, VFR CEILINGS AT PIT/AGC/BVI/LBE/MGW WILL GRADUALLY
ERODE AS IFR RETURNS WITH THE SECOND ROUND OF RAIN TODAY. A
FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE MASON- DIXON LINE PROLONGING
SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EVEN THOUGH THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN LOW WITH A CHANCE FOR FOG TOMORROW MORNING. REDUCED
VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN WITH THE EXCESS MOISTURE. THE RETURN FOR
RAIN WILL RETURN FOR ZZV AND MGW TOMORROW AND REMAIN TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH 18Z. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE AS IT
CONTINUES NORTHWARD INTO TOMORROW EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
OCCASIONAL RAIN WITH RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY AS
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION. CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN, AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS, IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM/88
AVIATION...LUPO
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