226
FXUS61 KPBZ 040606
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
106 AM EST WED MAR 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FOG WAS INCREASED IN THE FORECAST TODAY, AND A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF PA AND OH. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS HAS INCREASED FOR SATURDAY, AND HAVE BEEN ADDED TO
THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FOG THIS MORNING
2) WAVES OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY
3) STRONG THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE, IN THE VICINITY OF A QUASI STATIONARY
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS EASTERN OH INTO SW PA. RAIN IN SOME AREAS
HAS RESULTED IN ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP VISIBILITIES UP SOMEWHAT.
AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG, AND HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH 11 AM. OVERALL, VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE
THROUGH THE MORNING, THOUGH SOME LIGHT FOG WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT IS PROGGED TO SINK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
TODAY, WITH MUCH OF THE RAIN SHIFTING SOUTH OF PIT BY
AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY, WITH MOST AREAS SEEING AROUND
A THIRD OF AN INCH NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR, WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH.
A SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ENE ALONG
THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, AS THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO
THE WSW. THIS SHOULD DRIVE THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD, WITH
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF RAIN CROSSING THE REGION. GENERALLY
EXPECTING 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD, WHICH
SHOULD NOT CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT FLOOD HAZARD. IN ADDITION, THERE
IS SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY PROGGED ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY REGION TONIGHT (WITH SHOWALTER INDICES AROUND -1,) WHICH
COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
THE LAST WAVE EXITS FRIDAY MORNING, WITH THE FLOW BACKING
FURTHER TO THE SW. THIS SHOULD DRIVE THE FRONT FURTHER
NORTHWARD, WITH A GENERAL DECREASE IN POPS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS BY FRIDAY.
OVERALL RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED BY FRIDAY,
WITH ACTIONS STAGES POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK OUT OF THE MIDWEST LATE FRIDAY,
APPROACHING AND CROSSING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION SATURDAY.
OPERATIONAL AND MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FROPA SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY,
WHICH COULD INCREASE THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MONITOR THE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. IN ADDITION, NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE A SWATH OF RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT WILL
SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME, LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS. THE FKL AND DUJ
TERMINALS WILL BE A BIT TOO FAR NORTH FOR LIGHT RAIN. EITHER
WAY, THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE UNDER LOW CIGS AND LOW VISIBILITY
DUE TO THE STAGNANT AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HEADING INTO THE COMING DAY, MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE THE NEXT SLUG
OF MOISTURE ARRIVES TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD DROPPING
CIGS AND VIS DOWN TO FIELD MINS AGAIN.
OUTLOOK...
OCCASIONAL RAIN WITH RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY AS
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION. CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN, AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS, IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-020-022-074-076>078.
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039>041-
048.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
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