113
FXUS61 KPBZ 041317
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
817 AM EST WED MAR 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED SOUTHWARD THROUGH 11 AM.
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS INCREASED FOR SATURDAY, AND
HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FOG THIS MORNING, WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE AREA THROUGH 11 AM
2) WAVES OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY
3) STRONG THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE, IN THE VICINITY OF A QUASI STATIONARY
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS EASTERN OH INTO SW PA. RAIN IN SOME AREAS
HAS RESULTED IN ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP VISIBILITIES UP SOMEWHAT.
AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG, AND HAVE EXPANDED THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY SOUTHWARD THROUGH 11 AM. OVERALL, VISIBILITIES
SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING, THOUGH SOME LIGHT FOG WILL
LIKELY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT IS PROGGED TO SINK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
TODAY, WITH MUCH OF THE RAIN SHIFTING SOUTH OF PIT BY
AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY, WITH MOST AREAS SEEING AROUND
A THIRD OF AN INCH NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR, WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH.
A SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ENE ALONG
THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, AS THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO
THE WSW. THIS SHOULD DRIVE THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD, WITH
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF RAIN CROSSING THE REGION. GENERALLY
EXPECTING 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD, WHICH
SHOULD NOT CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT FLOOD HAZARD. IN ADDITION, THERE
IS SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY PROGGED ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY REGION TONIGHT (WITH SHOWALTER INDICES AROUND -1,) WHICH
COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
THE LAST WAVE EXITS FRIDAY MORNING, WITH THE FLOW BACKING
FURTHER TO THE SW. THIS SHOULD DRIVE THE FRONT FURTHER
NORTHWARD, WITH A GENERAL DECREASE IN POPS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS BY FRIDAY.
OVERALL RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED BY FRIDAY,
WITH ACTIONS STAGES POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK OUT OF THE MIDWEST LATE FRIDAY,
APPROACHING AND CROSSING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION SATURDAY.
OPERATIONAL AND MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FROPA SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY,
WHICH COULD INCREASE THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MONITOR THE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. IN ADDITION, NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CURRENTLY, A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS HAS CREATED A STAGNANT AIR MASS WITH
LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND AND TRAPPED MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, THERE IS
WIDESPREAD FOG THIS MORNING WITH LIFR VISIBILITY. BY LATE MORNING,
THE FOG SHOULD LIFT TO HELP IMPROVE VISIBILITIES, HOWEVER, THE
CEILINGS WILL NOT EXCEED IFR.
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DRIFT FURTHER SOUTH WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
A SLIGHT LIFT IN CEILINGS AND IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY AT FKL AND
DUJ. THIS EVENING, THE FRONT WILL BEGIN SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTH
GRADUALLY BRINGING A STEADY RAIN BACK TO THE TERMINALS. CIGS AND VIS
WILL DROP WITH AT LEAST ONE OF THOSE REACHING LIFR. FOG IS POSSIBLE
AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
OCCASIONAL RAIN WITH RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY AS
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION. CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN, AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS, IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-020>022-029-073>078.
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ001>003.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...LUPO
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