852
FXUS61 KPBZ 041849
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
149 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A RIVERS IN THE MONONGAHELA AND MUSKINGUM BASINS COULD REACH
ACTION STAGE ON FRIDAY DUE TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WAVES OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY; LOW CHANCE FOR A STRONG STORM
OR TWO THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
2) STRONG THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AGAIN ON SATURDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ENE ALONG
THE STALLED FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, AS THE UPPER FLOW
BACKS TO THE WSW. THIS SHOULD DRIVE THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD
DURING THAT TIME, WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES OF RAIN CROSSING THE
REGION. GENERALLY EXPECTING AROUND AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A
HALF OF RAIN DURING THE 24 HOUR PERIOD SPANNING TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING, WHICH SHOULD NOT CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT FLOOD
HAZARD. HOWEVER, SMALL RISES IN AREA RIVERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH A FEW IN THE MONONGAHELA AND MUSKINGUM BASINS
FORECAST TO REACH ACTION STAGE BY FRIDAY. THERE COULD ALSO BE
SOME PONDING IN LOW-LYING AND POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS DURING ANY
HEAVIER INSTANCES OF RAIN. IN ADDITION, THERE IS SOME WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PROGGED ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
TONIGHT (WITH SHOWALTER INDICES AROUND -1,) WHICH WILL SUPPORT
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
LATEST HI-RES ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGEST A LOW, BUT NON-ZERO,
POTENTIAL FOR A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR BRIEF, WEAK TORNADO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY ACROSS EXTREME SW PA AND
NORTHERN WV. UPON A CLOSER INSPECTION OF MODEL SOUNDINGS, LOW-
LEVEL HODOGRAPHS DO SUGGEST ENOUGH 0-1KM AND 0-3KM SHEAR TO
SUPPORT THIS THREAT. HOWEVER, DENSE CLOUD COVER OVERSPREADING
THE ENTIRE AREA AND A LACK OF DRY AIR ALOFT ARE ACTING TO WEAKEN
LAPSE RATES AND LIMIT INSTABILITY. THEREFORE, ANY SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE CONDITIONAL UPON STRONGER HEATING OCCURRING THAN IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST.
AFTER THE LAST WAVE EXITS FRIDAY MORNING, FLOW BACKS EVEN MORE
TO THE SW. THIS SHOULD DRIVE THE FRONT EVEN FARTHER NORTHWARD,
RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN POPS LOCALLY. THIS SHIFT ALSO HELPS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK OUT OF THE MIDWEST LATE FRIDAY,
APPROACHING AND CROSSING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION SATURDAY.
OPERATIONAL AND MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FROPA SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY,
WHICH COULD INCREASE THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MONITOR THE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. IN ADDITION, NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
CURRENTLY, A STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS CREATED A STAGNANT AIR MASS WITH
LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND AND TRAPPED MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, LIFR/IFR
CEILINGS HAVE REMAIN PERSISTENT.
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DRIFT FURTHER SOUTH INTO EARLY EVENING
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN AN IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY AND A SLIGHT
LIFT IN CEILINGS. THIS WILL BE MAINLY FOR FKL/DUJ, HOWEVER, WITH
A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND WOULD HELP RESTRICTIONS AT MGW. THIS
EVENING, THE FRONT WILL BEGIN SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTH AGAIN AND
GRADUALLY BRING A STEADY RAIN BACK TO THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
CIGS AND VIS WILL DROP AGAIN WITH AT LEAST ONE OF THOSE REACHING
LIFR. FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME,
THEY ARE NOT IN THE TAFS AS THERE IS AN UNCERTAINTY WITH THEIR
OCCURRENCE.
OUTLOOK...
PERIODIC PERIODS OF RAIN WITH RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY REGION. CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN, AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS, IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CERMAK/WM
AVIATION...LUPO
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