533
FXUS61 KPBZ 042358
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
658 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A RIVERS IN THE MONONGAHELA AND MUSKINGUM BASINS COULD REACH
ACTION STAGE ON FRIDAY DUE TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WAVES OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY; LOW CHANCE FOR A STRONG STORM
OR TWO THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
2) STRONG THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AGAIN ON SATURDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ENE ALONG
THE STALLED FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, AS THE UPPER FLOW
BACKS TO THE WSW. THIS SHOULD DRIVE THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD
DURING THAT TIME, WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES OF RAIN CROSSING THE
REGION. GENERALLY EXPECTING AROUND AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A
HALF OF RAIN DURING THE 24 HOUR PERIOD SPANNING TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING, WHICH SHOULD NOT CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT FLOOD
HAZARD. HOWEVER, SMALL RISES IN AREA RIVERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH A FEW IN THE MONONGAHELA AND MUSKINGUM BASINS
FORECAST TO REACH ACTION STAGE BY FRIDAY. THERE COULD ALSO BE
SOME PONDING IN LOW-LYING AND POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS DURING ANY
HEAVIER INSTANCES OF RAIN. IN ADDITION, THERE IS SOME WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PROGGED ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
TONIGHT (WITH SHOWALTER INDICES AROUND -1,) WHICH WILL SUPPORT
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
LATEST HI-RES ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGEST A LOW, BUT NON-ZERO,
POTENTIAL FOR A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR BRIEF, WEAK TORNADO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY ACROSS EXTREME SW PA AND
NORTHERN WV. UPON A CLOSER INSPECTION OF MODEL SOUNDINGS, LOW-
LEVEL HODOGRAPHS DO SUGGEST ENOUGH 0-1KM AND 0-3KM SHEAR TO
SUPPORT THIS THREAT. HOWEVER, DENSE CLOUD COVER OVERSPREADING
THE ENTIRE AREA AND A LACK OF DRY AIR ALOFT ARE ACTING TO WEAKEN
LAPSE RATES AND LIMIT INSTABILITY. THEREFORE, ANY SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE CONDITIONAL UPON STRONGER HEATING OCCURRING THAN IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST.
AFTER THE LAST WAVE EXITS FRIDAY MORNING, FLOW BACKS EVEN MORE
TO THE SW. THIS SHOULD DRIVE THE FRONT EVEN FARTHER NORTHWARD,
RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN POPS LOCALLY. THIS SHIFT ALSO HELPS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK OUT OF THE MIDWEST LATE FRIDAY,
APPROACHING AND CROSSING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION SATURDAY.
OPERATIONAL AND MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FROPA SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY,
WHICH COULD INCREASE THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MONITOR THE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. IN ADDITION, NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARY HAS MANAGED TO PUSH NORTH SLIGHTLY, NEAR
OR JUST NORTH OF I-70. THIS HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS TO CREEP BACK
UP INTO THE MVFR OR IFR CATEGORY AT TERMINALS LIKE ZZV, MGW, AND
HLG.
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST, TRAVELING ALONG THE
WAVERING BOUNDARY. ZZV IS LIKELY THE ONLY TERMINAL THAT HAS A
CHANCE OF HEARING A RUMBLE OF THUNDER BEFORE INSTABILITY FADES.
THIS WILL SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS, LEADING ONCE AGAIN TO LIFR
CEILINGS AT MOST TERMINALS. MGW, THE LONE TERMINAL WITH AN HREF
IFR PROBABILITY OF LESS THAN 50 PERCENT, MAY HANG ON TO IFR
CEILINGS AT WORST. VISIBILITY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE IFR
RANGE DURING THE HEAVIER RAIN PERIODS. DENSE FOG IS A LITTLE
LESS LIKELY TONIGHT DUE TO BETTER MIXING, BUT IS STILL POSSIBLE
WHERE A STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION CAN DEVELOP.
PERIODS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS OVERALL UNTIL AFTER 18Z, WHEN THE
FRONT MAY BOW BACK NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN AND ALLOW FOR SOME
CEILING RISES NEAR AND SOUTH OF PIT. A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE EXPECTED THICK CLOUD
COVER, CHANCES REMAIN QUITE LOW AND WERE NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
PERIODIC PERIODS OF RAIN WITH RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY REGION. CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN, AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS, IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. VFR AND
QUIETER WEATHER ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CERMAK/WM
AVIATION...CL
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