596
FXUS61 KPBZ 050601
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
101 AM EST THU MAR 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70. RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ELEVATED DUE TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, THOUGH FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED. STRONG STORMS STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FOG TODAY, WITH WAVES OF RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70 THIS
AFTERNOON
2) STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
3) RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS SATURDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A QUASI STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM WESTERN OHIO
INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH EARLY MORNING AS A
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ENE ALONG THE FRONT. OVERALL RAINFALL RATES
HAVE DECREASED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS, WITH SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWING WARMING CLOUD TOPS. A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO OCCURING WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY (SHOWALTER INDEX 0 TO -1.) QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
GREATEST ACROSS SE OH AND NRN WV, WITH GENERALLY A THIRD TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH THROUGH THE MORNING. FOG WILL
CONTINUE, THROUGH MIXING WITH THE RAINFALL SHOULD PRECLUDE
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH, AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT, IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINTAINING WAVES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THE HEAVIEST QPF SHIFTS NORTH OF PIT THIS
AFTERNOON, CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, WHERE FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES ARE HIGH AND NO SIGNIFICANT FLOOD POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED.
THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST PA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY SW OF
THE LOW ACROSS SE OH/NRN WV/FAR SW PA, WHERE 0-6KM SHEAR
INCREASES TO 40-50KT THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR.
RAIN SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW
EXITS THE AREA, AND THE FRONT DROPS BACK TO THE SOUTH. THE
FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO
THE SW, WITH LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, AS A MORE AMPLIFIED
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
MIDWEST. 40 TO 50 KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AS ENSEMBLE PROGGED
MLCAPE APPROACHES 500 J/KG. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE AFFECT BY
THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND SURFACE HEATING THAT OCCURS, THOUGH
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AS FROPA OCCURS LATE IN THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. HERE ARE
THE RECORDS FOR STATIONS AROUND THE AREA FOR MARCH 7TH.
RECORD...... FORECAST HIGH
KPIT: 76/1983 75
KDUJ: 64/2016 68
KHLG: 74/2009 75
KPHD: 75/2000 74
KZZV: 77/2009,1983 75
KMGW: 79/1995,1983 77
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARY HAS MANAGED TO PUSH NORTH SLIGHTLY, NEAR
OR JUST NORTH OF I-70. THIS HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS TO CREEP BACK
UP INTO THE MVFR OR IFR CATEGORY AT TERMINALS LIKE ZZV, MGW, AND
HLG.
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST, TRAVELING ALONG THE
WAVERING BOUNDARY. ZZV IS LIKELY THE ONLY TERMINAL THAT HAS A
CHANCE OF HEARING A RUMBLE OF THUNDER BEFORE INSTABILITY FADES.
THIS WILL SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS, LEADING ONCE AGAIN TO LIFR
CEILINGS AT MOST TERMINALS. MGW, THE LONE TERMINAL WITH AN HREF
IFR PROBABILITY OF LESS THAN 50 PERCENT, MAY HANG ON TO IFR
CEILINGS AT WORST. VISIBILITY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE IFR
RANGE DURING THE HEAVIER RAIN PERIODS. DENSE FOG IS A LITTLE
LESS LIKELY TONIGHT DUE TO BETTER MIXING, BUT IS STILL POSSIBLE
WHERE A STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION CAN DEVELOP.
PERIODS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS OVERALL UNTIL AFTER 18Z, WHEN THE
FRONT MAY BOW BACK NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN AND ALLOW FOR SOME
CEILING RISES NEAR AND SOUTH OF PIT. A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE EXPECTED THICK CLOUD
COVER, CHANCES REMAIN QUITE LOW AND WERE NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
PERIODIC PERIODS OF RAIN WITH RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY REGION. CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN, AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS, IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. VFR AND
QUIETER WEATHER ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...CL
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