998
FXUS61 KPBZ 051755
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1255 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70. RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ELEVATED DUE TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, THOUGH SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY,
AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED THE AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FOG TODAY, WITH WAVES OF RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70 THIS
AFTERNOON
2) SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
3) RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS SATURDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A QUASI STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM WESTERN OHIO
INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH EARLY MORNING AS A
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ENE ALONG THE FRONT. OVERALL RAINFALL RATES
HAVE DECREASED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS, WITH SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWING WARMING CLOUD TOPS. A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO OCCURING WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY (SHOWALTER INDEX 0 TO -1.) QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
GREATEST ACROSS SE OH AND NRN WV, WITH GENERALLY A THIRD TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH THROUGH THE MORNING. FOG WILL
CONTINUE, AND WHERE MOST OF THE RAIN HAS ENDED VISIBILITIES HAVE
DROPPED TO A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS IN MANY LOCATIONS. ISSUED
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS, AND WILL MONITOR FURTHER
TRENDS.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH, AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT, IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINTAINING WAVES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THE HEAVIEST QPF SHIFTS NORTH OF PIT THIS
AFTERNOON, CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, WHERE FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES ARE HIGH AND NO SIGNIFICANT FLOOD POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED.
THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST PA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY SW OF
THE LOW ACROSS SE OH/NRN WV/FAR SW PA, WHERE 0-6KM SHEAR
INCREASES TO 40-50KT THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR.
RAIN SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW
EXITS THE AREA, AND THE FRONT DROPS BACK TO THE SOUTH. THE
FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO
THE SW, WITH LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, AS A MORE AMPLIFIED
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
MIDWEST. 40 TO 50 KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AS ENSEMBLE PROGGED
MLCAPE APPROACHES 500 J/KG. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND SURFACE HEATING THAT OCCURS, THOUGH AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS AS FROPA OCCURS LATE IN THE DAY. IT APPEARS THE MAIN HAZARD
WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED
THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. HERE ARE
THE RECORDS FOR STATIONS AROUND THE AREA FOR MARCH 7TH.
RECORD...... FORECAST HIGH
KPIT: 76/1983 75
KDUJ: 64/2016 68
KHLG: 74/2009 75
KPHD: 75/2000 74
KZZV: 77/2009,1983 75
KMGW: 79/1995,1983 77
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A MIX OF VFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE
ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON (LOCALLY LIFR AT FKL/DUJ). WHILE MINOR
IMPROVEMENTS SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THE RAIN AND
AT LEAST INTERMITTENT MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER. WEAK INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH OF
PIT BY THIS EVENING, SO A FEW INSTANCES OF THUNDER WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AT ZZV/HLG/MGW.
ANY IMPROVEMENT IN RESTRICTIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED, WITH CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES DROPPING BACK TO PREVAILING
IFR OR LIFR FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF RAIN AFTER 03Z. WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
PERIODIC RAIN WITH RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY, A FEW OF WHICH COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE. VFR AND QUIETER WEATHER ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...CERMAK
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