409
FXUS61 KPBZ 051844
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
144 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED. TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE
ADJUSTED DOWN A LITTLE, THINKING CLEARING IN THE CLOUDS MAY BE
HARD TO COME BY. A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WAS
INTRODUCED ACROSS THE AREA BY SPC EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WE HAVE
YET TO SEE THE CLEARING NECESSARY TO REALLY TAP THIS RISK. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOW THIS AFTERNOON EVOLVES BUT EACH
SUCCESSIVE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND CLOUDS SEEMINGLY LOWERS THIS
THREAT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WAVES OF RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. LOWERING POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG STORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70 THIS AFTERNOON
2) SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
3) RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS SATURDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
OUR PREVIOUS QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT IS NOW BEING PULLED
BACK TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS A WARM FRONT AS A SURFACE LOW
CLIMBS NORTHWARD THROUGH INDIANA. WITH THIS LOW, AN AREA OF RAIN
IS PROGRESSING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. RATES IN THIS RAIN
HAVE NOT BEEN OVERLY HEAVY AND MOST AREAS GOT BETWEEN A QUARTER
AND HALF INCH OUT OF THIS ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. THERE WERE A
FEW REPORTS THIS MORNING OF VERY ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-
LYING AREAS AND A COUPLE CREEK-SIDE ROADS BEING WASHED OVER.
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE PAIRED WITH AROUND 40 KTS
OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 850MB IS SUPPLYING THE AREA WITH SOME
DECENT SPEED SHEAR (40-50 KTS SFC-6 KM) AND JUST ENOUGH TURNING
IN THE LOWEST 1 KM TO CAUSE SOME CONCERN FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REMAIN THE
MOST LIKELY THREAT FROM ANY STORMS TODAY, BUT THE CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
STORMS REMAINS SOUTH OF I-70, WITH MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY
FURTHER NORTH KEEPING THE RISK LOWER.
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE ADVANCING LOW, A COUPLE OF LINES OF
SHOWERS HAVE FORMED AND MARCHED NORTHEASTWARD. PATCHES OF
CLEARING AHEAD OF THESE LINES HAVE BEEN FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. IN
THESE POCKETS, SURFACE TEMPS HAVE RISEN RAPIDLY IN THE SPAN OF
ONLY ABOUT AN HOUR AND TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW 70S IN CENTRAL WV.
FURTHER NORTH, ACROSS OUR AREA, THERE HAVE BEEN FEWER BREAKS AND
WE HAVEN'T BEEN ABLE TO ACHIEVE THE HEATING NECESSARY FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS MUCKING UP AND
KEEPING A LID ON HEATING, OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY BE
LOWERING LOCALLY. THERE STILL REMAINS A CHANCE WE CAN SEE A
COUPLE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS OR STORMS BUT THIS THREAT WILL BE
HIGHEST IN AREAS THAT CAN CLEAR OR HEAT AND THE CLOSEST SUCH
AREAS REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF US IN CENTRAL WV.
THE HEAVIEST QPF AXIS MOVES NORTH OF PIT THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND LOW. FURTHER NORTH, FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES ARE HIGHER AND NO SIGNIFICANT FLOOD POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED.
RAINFALL DECREASES IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TONIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW EXIT TO OUR EAST. AS THEY DO SO, THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS BACK SOUTHWARD AS A WEAK COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND
ADVANCES ON THE REGION SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A LOW WILL DRAG
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION, LIKELY IN THE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH COULD SUPPLY THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF
WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE. 40-50 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINING WITH AROUND 500
J/KG OF MUCAPE. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE LARGELY
DEPENDS ON THE DEGREES OF CLEARING AND HEATING WE CAN ACHIEVE
AHEAD OF THESE STORMS. HOWEVER, A STOUT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SUPPLYING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S
CERTAINLY RAISES CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME,
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THESE
STORMS BUT ALL HAZARDS COULD BE AT PLAY. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS INCLUDED OUR REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF
5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. HERE ARE
THE RECORDS FOR STATIONS AROUND THE AREA FOR MARCH 7TH. EVEN IF
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOT SET, HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
RECORD...... FORECAST HIGH
KPIT: 76/1983 74
KDUJ: 64/2016 67
KHLG: 74/2009 76
KPHD: 75/2000 74
KZZV: 77/2009,1983 74
KMGW: 79/1995,1983 77
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A MIX OF VFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE
ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON (LOCALLY LIFR AT FKL/DUJ). WHILE MINOR
IMPROVEMENTS SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THE RAIN AND
AT LEAST INTERMITTENT MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER. WEAK INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH OF
PIT BY THIS EVENING, SO A FEW INSTANCES OF THUNDER WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AT ZZV/HLG/MGW.
ANY IMPROVEMENT IN RESTRICTIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED, WITH CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES DROPPING BACK TO PREVAILING
IFR OR LIFR FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF RAIN AFTER 03Z. WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
PERIODIC RAIN WITH RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY, A FEW OF WHICH COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE. VFR AND QUIETER WEATHER ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AK
AVIATION...CERMAK/SHALLENBERGER
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