476
FXUS61 KPBZ 060539
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1239 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLOOD WARNING FOR MOST HAVE BEEN EXPIRED AS OF 8:15P, SAVE
SOUTHERN NOBLE COUNTY. ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGY/SEVERE CONCERNS NOT
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT RAIN ACCUMULATIONS AND FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
2) SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
RAINFALL DECREASES IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TONIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW EXIT TO OUR EAST. AS THEY DO SO, THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS BACK SOUTHWARD AS A WEAK COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL ALLOW LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT, MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF
I-70. NO ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGY CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN TOTALS FOR ANY GIVEN LOCALITY <0.25".
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT, WHICH MAY BE
LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES. HREF PEGS EASTERN OHIO, NORTHWEST PA,
AND THE WEST VIRGINIA RIDES AS SOME OF THE MORE LIKELY AREAS TO
SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED SHOULD
OBSERVATIONS JUSTIFY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND
ADVANCES ON THE REGION SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A LOW WILL DRAG
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION, LIKELY IN THE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH COULD SUPPLY THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF
WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE. 40-50 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINING WITH AROUND 500
J/KG OF MUCAPE. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE LARGELY
DEPENDS ON THE DEGREES OF CLEARING AND HEATING WE CAN ACHIEVE
AHEAD OF THESE STORMS. HOWEVER, A STOUT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SUPPLYING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S
CERTAINLY RAISES CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME,
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THESE
STORMS BUT ALL HAZARDS COULD BE AT PLAY. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS INCLUDED OUR REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF
5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN LOW STRATUS AND FOG
OVERNIGHT, WITH EVENTUAL IFR TO LIFR EXPECTED AREAWIDE. SLOW
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS AND VIS IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE, WITH
SCATTERING TO VFR EVENTUALLY EXPECTED FOR ALL BUT FKL/DUJ LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. CEILING RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER AT DUJ AND FKL
OVERNIGHT.
A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON (ROUGHLY 15-19Z), BUT
PROBABILITY IS LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT ONLY VCSH MENTION.
OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A
CROSSING COLD FRONT. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. VFR
AND QUIETER WEATHER ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. RESTRICTIONS WITH RAIN LIKELY RETURN ON
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. HERE ARE
THE RECORDS FOR STATIONS AROUND THE AREA FOR MARCH 7TH. EVEN IF
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOT SET, HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
RECORD...... FORECAST HIGH
KPIT: 76/1983 74
KDUJ: 64/2016 67
KHLG: 74/2009 76
KPHD: 75/2000 74
KZZV: 77/2009,1983 74
KMGW: 79/1995,1983 77
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MILCAREK/AK
AVIATION...RACKLEY
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