320
FXUS61 KPBZ 061004
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
504 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLOOD WARNING STILL OUT FOR SOUTHERN NOBLE COUNTY. DENSE FOG
ADVISORY ISSUED FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH
KEY MESSAGES
1) FOG THIS MORNING
2) SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
FOG HAS DEVELOPED LARGELY NORTH AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH UNDER
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND SATURATED LOW LEVELS. WITH LOCALLY
DENSE FOG ALREADY BEING OBSERVED THIS MORNING, HAVE ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH MID-MORNING. WAS HESITANT AT FIRST
AS ALL INDICATORS POINTED TOWARDS ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MIXING FOR
LOW STRATUS BUT SURFACE WINDS ARE MOSTLY CALM EARLY THIS
MORNING, AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED RATHER THAN LOW STRATUS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND
ADVANCES ON THE REGION SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A LOW WILL DRAG
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION, LIKELY IN THE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH COULD SUPPLY THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF
WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE. 40-50 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINING WITH AROUND 500
J/KG OF MUCAPE. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE LARGELY
DEPENDS ON THE DEGREES OF CLEARING AND HEATING WE CAN ACHIEVE
AHEAD OF THESE STORMS. HOWEVER, A STOUT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SUPPLYING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S
CERTAINLY RAISES CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME,
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THESE
STORMS BUT ALL HAZARDS COULD BE AT PLAY. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS INCLUDED OUR REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF
5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN LOW STRATUS AND FOG
OVERNIGHT, WITH EVENTUAL IFR TO LIFR EXPECTED AREAWIDE. SLOW
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS AND VIS IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE, WITH
SCATTERING TO VFR EVENTUALLY EXPECTED FOR ALL BUT FKL/DUJ LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. CEILING RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER AT DUJ AND FKL
OVERNIGHT.
A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON (ROUGHLY 15-19Z), BUT
PROBABILITY IS LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT ONLY VCSH MENTION.
OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A
CROSSING COLD FRONT. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. VFR
AND QUIETER WEATHER ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. RESTRICTIONS WITH RAIN LIKELY RETURN ON
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. HERE ARE
THE RECORDS FOR STATIONS AROUND THE AREA FOR MARCH 7TH. EVEN IF
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOT SET, HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
RECORD...... FORECAST HIGH
KPIT: 76/1983 74
KDUJ: 64/2016 67
KHLG: 74/2009 76
KPHD: 75/2000 74
KZZV: 77/2009,1983 74
KMGW: 79/1995,1983 77
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ007-008-
013-014-020.
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ001-002.
DISCUSSION...MILCAREK/88/AK
AVIATION...RACKLEY
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