281
FXUS61 KPBZ 210535
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
135 AM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATE TO AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STORM POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY WITH PASSING COLD FRONT, ALL
SEVERE THREATS IN PLAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTER A QUIET SATURDAY, A SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS PRESENT FOR SUNDAY. WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY NIGHT, ATTACHED TO GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE, ALLOWS FOR
SOUTHWEST FLOW PROMOTING STRONG HEATING DURING THE SUNDAY
DAYLIGHT HOURS. WELL-ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST, SUPPORTED BY 850MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 15C. HIGHS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 70S, PERHAPS NEAR 80 IN THE VICINITY OF
THE MASON-DIXON LINE. MUCAPE LEVELS OF AT LEAST 500-1000 J/KG
ARE SUGGESTED BY ENSEMBLES SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A LOT OF THAT
IN THE IDEAL HAIL GROWTH ZONE. 0-6KM SHEAR MAY TOP OUT IN THE
RANGE OF 50-60 KNOTS. AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SOME SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES MAY BE SUPPORTED IN THIS ENVIRONMENT, WITH ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS ON THE TABLE. AT PRESENT, PARAMETERS APPEAR BEST
ALIGNED IN EASTERN OHIO AND LEAKING OVER INTO SOUTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. ACCORDINGLY, SPC HAS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 5) INTO SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA, WITH A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) ENCOMPASSING THE REST OF OUR AREA.
WEAKENING CONVECTION WOULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THROUGH THE
NIGHT, WITH DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR
MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT, CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DUE TO RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM PRECIP
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. CIGS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM MVFR TO IFR
FROM 06Z TO 12Z EARLY THIS MORNING.
HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST CIGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 14Z TO
16Z TODAY WITH SFC HEATING AFTER DAY BREAK. WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
A NEW COLD FRONT COULD RETURN STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE VFR RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MLB/CL
AVIATION...HEFFERAN
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