485
FXUS61 KPBZ 221140
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
740 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED. CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS
ELEVATED FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AFTER 2PM TODAY WITH A
PASSING COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A CROSSING COLD FRONT WITH A MAIN
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. THERE IS A LESSER CHANCE
FOR A TORNADO THREAT. TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD CAUSE SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS.
2) MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCE AROUND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WARM AIRMASS HAS ENTERED THE REGION. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHICH
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S SOUTH OF US-422, AND EVEN IN THE 80S SOUTH OF I-70
AND THE MASON-DIXON LINE. DURING THE AFTERNOON, INCREASED MOISTURE
AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WILL HELP PUSH SURFACE-BASED
CAPE INTO THE 750 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. MUCH OF THIS INSTABILITY LIES
IN THE FAVORABLE -10C TO -30C LAYER FOR HAIL GROWTH, WITH MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 7C TO 7.5C PRESENT AS WELL. THERE IS FAVORABLE 0-6KM
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE
PARAMETERS WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BETWEEN 2 PM TO 5 PM,
STARTING TO THE NORTH. AS THOSE SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE SOUTH, THEY WILL
ENCOUNTER THE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (DESCRIBED ABOVE) BETWEEN 4
PM AND 8 PM AND BECOME MORE SEVERE IN NATURE. THIS MOST LIKELY TO
OCCUR NEAR PITTSBURGH AND SOUTH. ALL SEVERE THREATS REMAIN IN PLAY,
ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND CHANCES WILL DOMINATE, WITH A
LESSER BUT STILL PRESENT TORNADO THREAT.
WE WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL OF TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS, AS MEAN STORM MOTION SHOULD BE FAIRLY PARALLEL TO THE
CROSSING COLD FRONT. THUS, ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS AND
LOCALIZED WATER ISSUES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. CHANCES FOR EXCEEDING
1.5 INCHES ARE GREATEST (40%-45%) IN THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
STORM INTENSITY SHOULD BEGIN TO EASE BY THE MID TO LATE EVENING WITH
DIURNAL STABILIZATION, ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT UNTIL IT EXITS THE REGION TO OUR
SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
LARGELY QUIET WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY PERIOD. IN
THE WAKE OF THE SUNDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW-NORMAL ON MONDAY. THERE IS A MARGINAL CHANCE
FOR LAKE-ENHANCED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED LAKE-ENHANCED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO MODERATE NEAR/JUST ABOVE AVERAGE BY
WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ARRIVE
THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLES CURRENTLY DIFFER ON TIMING AND
STRENGTH. GIVEN A WARM SURGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THIS PERIOD, THIS MAY REPRESENT OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. EXTENDED MACHINE-LEARNING
GUIDANCE FROM CSU AND NCAR SUPPORT THIS IDEA.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY, ALTHOUGH MID AND
UPPER CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS AT
12Z, WITH 35-40 KNOT WINDS JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE, WILL
TRANSITION TO 20-25 KNOT SURFACE GUSTS ONCE DAYTIME MIXING
COMMENCES.
THE FIRST SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT
FKL/DUJ BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY FROM
18Z ON AS IT SINKS THROUGH THE REGION. ALL TERMINALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TO SOME DEGREE. HAVE USED 2 HOUR TEMPO
GROUPS TO TRY THE MOST LIKELY TIME OF ARRIVAL. STORMS WILL BE
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE IN SOME CASES. EXPECT IFR TO PERHAPS
BRIEF LIFR VISIBILITY IN DOWNPOURS, WITH MVFR CEILINGS AS WELL.
VARIABLE WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS OR SO ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY
TERMINAL, AND DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF HAIL IS OBSERVED AT ONE OR
TWO AREA AIRPORTS.
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING, CEILINGS SHOULD CRASH THROUGH
LOW MVFR TO IFR IN MOST CASES AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT,
BUT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND LOW CEILINGS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH
MOST OF THE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MOSTLY VFR RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNDER
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. THE NEXT NOTABLE CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS
MAY ARRIVE BY THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CL/LUPO
AVIATION...CL
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