604
FXUS61 KPBZ 231148
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
748 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MACHINE LEARNING CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTS THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) QUIET AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM CHANCES
INCREASE LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH. THIS AFTERNOON, AREAS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH MAY SEE A
WINTRY MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS, BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.
QUIET, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
BY THURSDAY, A TROUGH AND COLD FRONT, MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM, MOIST CONDITIONS WILL
FOLLOW. ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. RECENT MACHINE LEARNING ANALYSIS SUGGESTS
THAT THESE STORMS, PARTICULARLY IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE CURRENT PROBABILITY OF OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RANGES BETWEEN 15-30% THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
ALONG WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, THERE COULD BE A
FEW AREAS THAT RECEIVE A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN. THE PROBABILITY
OF 1 INCH OF RAINFALL IN 24 HOURS IN EASTERN OHIO RANGES BETWEEN
35 TO 45%. HOWEVER, THE PROBABILITY OF >= 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS
CONSIDERED "LOW" (LESS THAN 10%).
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STOUT INVERSION
THIS MORNING. IMPROVEMENT OF CURRENT IFR/LIFR CEILINGS IS
THEREFORE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE SLOW TODAY. THE CESSATION OF
DRIZZLE AND IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS, WITH BASES POSSIBLY RISING ABOVE 2000 FEET BY 18Z
TO THE SOUTH OF I-80. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS THEN POSSIBLE BY
21Z OR SO AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD, WITH CLOUDS
SCATTERING OUT DURING THE EVENING. FKL/DUJ WILL SHOW THE SLOWEST
IMPROVEMENT, AND MAY NOT ACHIEVE VFR CEILINGS BEFORE CLOUD
BREAKUP THIS EVENING.
COLD ADVECTION AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES BELOW THE INVERSION
ARE HELPING TO DRIVE GUSTY NW WIND OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS, AND THESE
GUSTS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE RELAXING BY SUNSET.
A FEW AFTERNOON RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY
NORTH OF I-80, BUT LITTLE IMPACT TO VISIBILITY IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
OUTLOOK...
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. RESTRICTION POTENTIAL
RETURNS WITH A THURSDAY WARM FRONT, AND CONTINUES ON FRIDAY WITH
A CROSSING COLD FRONT.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...CL
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