002
FXUS61 KPBZ 231521
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1121 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MONITORING FLOODING CONCERNS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) QUIET WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING CONCERNS PERSIST LATE
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS EVIDENCED BY THE 12Z WEATHER BALLOON, THERE IS A SHALLOW
SATURATED LAYER TRAPPED UNDER A SURFACE INVERSION, MOSTLY
ISOTHERMAL AND NEAR FREEZING. THIS ALLUDES TO CONTINUED CHANCES
OF DRIZZLE THROUGH THE DAY (AND PERHAPS PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
AT RIDGETOPS AND NORTH OF I-80, THOUGH ROADS ARE WELL ABOVE
FREEZING). THERE IS A CHANCE FLURRIES MIX IN AT TIMES, BUT THIS
REMAINS GENERALLY UNLIKELY UNLESS COOLING OCCURS ALOFT.
ENCROACHING RIDGING WILL BRING AN UPWARD SWING IN TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN. BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ABOVE NORMAL.
LATE THURSDAY, THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH,
BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES OF WEATHER IMPACTS. IN THE EVENT THAT
THIS COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BEFORE SUNSET (OR A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH COMES THROUGH), SEVERE CHANCES WOULD LOCALLY BE HIGHER.
THE LONG RANGE, SPC, CIPS, AND CSU OUTLOOKS ALL MAINTAIN THE
HIGHEST SEVERE CHANCES IN THE MIDWEST FOR NOW, BUT THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
IN THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO THAT THIS FRONT AND THE AFFILIATED
REMNANT CONVECTION PASSES THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY, CONVECTIVE RAINFALL WILL POSE MORE OF A
FLOODING CONCERN. LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES HINT FLOODING PARAMETERS
ARE ALIGNING. THE LREF ENSEMBLE MEAN PWAT OF 1.16" WOULD PUSH
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL DAILY MAX OF 1.11" ON MARCH 27TH. IN
ADDITION, ENSEMBLE SOUNDINGS ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF LONG, SKINNY
CAPE. DYNAMICS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF WARM, MOIST, SOUTHWEST FLOW
PUSHING INTO A FRONT ORIENTED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN
EASTERN CONUS UPPER JET. ALL THESE ARE GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONCERNS. WPC HAS INTRODUCED A MARGINAL RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACCORDINGLY. ALL IN ALL, GIVEN THE
ENVIRONMENT, IT WOULD BE REASONABLE TO ASSUME A NARROW AXIS OF
90TH+ PERCENTILE QPF IS POSSIBLE, WHICH IS CURRENTLY 1.5" TO
2.5" IN THE NBM. THIS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
FLOODING CONCERNS.
AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STOUT INVERSION
THIS MORNING. IMPROVEMENT OF CURRENT IFR/LIFR CEILINGS IS
THEREFORE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE SLOW TODAY. THE CESSATION OF
DRIZZLE AND IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS, WITH BASES POSSIBLY RISING ABOVE 2000 FEET BY 18Z
TO THE SOUTH OF I-80. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS THEN POSSIBLE BY
21Z OR SO AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD, WITH CLOUDS
SCATTERING OUT DURING THE EVENING. FKL/DUJ WILL SHOW THE SLOWEST
IMPROVEMENT, AND MAY NOT ACHIEVE VFR CEILINGS BEFORE CLOUD
BREAKUP THIS EVENING.
COLD ADVECTION AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES BELOW THE INVERSION
ARE HELPING TO DRIVE GUSTY NW WIND OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS, AND THESE
GUSTS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE RELAXING BY SUNSET.
A FEW AFTERNOON RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY
NORTH OF I-80, BUT LITTLE IMPACT TO VISIBILITY IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
OUTLOOK...
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. RESTRICTION POTENTIAL
RETURNS WITH A THURSDAY WARM FRONT, AND CONTINUES ON FRIDAY WITH
A CROSSING COLD FRONT.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MILCAREK
AVIATION...CL
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