059
FXUS61 KPBZ 240318
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1118 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MONITORING FLOODING CONCERNS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) QUIET WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING CONCERNS PERSIST LATE
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ENCROACHING RIDGING WILL BRING AN UPWARD SWING IN TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN. BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ABOVE NORMAL.
LATE THURSDAY, THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH,
BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES OF WEATHER IMPACTS. IN THE EVENT THAT
THIS COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BEFORE SUNSET (OR A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH COMES THROUGH), SEVERE CHANCES WOULD LOCALLY BE HIGHER.
THE LONG RANGE, SPC, CIPS, AND CSU OUTLOOKS ALL MAINTAIN THE
HIGHEST SEVERE CHANCES IN THE MIDWEST FOR NOW, BUT THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
IN THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO THAT THIS FRONT AND THE AFFILIATED
REMNANT CONVECTION PASSES THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY, CONVECTIVE RAINFALL WILL POSE MORE OF A
FLOODING CONCERN. LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES HINT FLOODING PARAMETERS
ARE ALIGNING. THE LREF ENSEMBLE MEAN PWAT OF 1.16" WOULD PUSH
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL DAILY MAX OF 1.11" ON MARCH 27TH. IN
ADDITION, ENSEMBLE SOUNDINGS ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF LONG, SKINNY
CAPE. DYNAMICS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF WARM, MOIST, SOUTHWEST FLOW
PUSHING INTO A FRONT ORIENTED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN
EASTERN CONUS UPPER JET. ALL THESE ARE GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONCERNS. WPC HAS INTRODUCED A MARGINAL RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACCORDINGLY. ALL IN ALL, GIVEN THE
ENVIRONMENT, IT WOULD BE REASONABLE TO ASSUME A NARROW AXIS OF
90TH+ PERCENTILE QPF IS POSSIBLE, WHICH IS CURRENTLY 1.5" TO
2.5" IN THE NBM. THIS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
FLOODING CONCERNS.
AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A FEW LINGERING INSTANCES OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD, FOLLOWED BY A TAPERING OF
PRECIPITATION AS DRY AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA IN THE
LOW LEVELS. CEILINGS HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED TO VFR EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT DUJ, WHERE IT SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THEN PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
OUTLOOK...
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. RESTRICTION POTENTIAL
RETURNS WITH A THURSDAY WARM FRONT, AND CONTINUES ON FRIDAY WITH
A CROSSING COLD FRONT.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MILCAREK
AVIATION...CERMAK/CL
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