730
FXUS61 KPBZ 250439
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1239 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. A MARGINAL (1/5) RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND A MARGINAL (1/4) RISK FOR FLOODING ARE
OUTLOOKED FOR THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT BRINGS CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY.
2) HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PROMPT ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS LATE
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES BEFORE A DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO
OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM,
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING,
POSSIBLY PRODUCING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY, STRONGER UPDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE LIGHTNING AND SMALL
HAIL.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SIGNIFICANT DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR (40-50 KTS), AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 60F. WHILE BETTER
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN
TO WANE OVERNIGHT, ROBUST AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHOULD
PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND POSSIBLY INTO WESTERN PA
OVERNIGHT. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL (1/5) RISK FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. THE MAIN RISK AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING
WIND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO BE THE BIGGER THREAT WITH THE COLD
FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PARALLEL
TO THE FRONT, SUGGESTING STORMS MAY "TRAIN" OVER THE SAME
CORRIDORS. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND PWAT VALUES APPROACHING
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUMS FOR LATE MARCH SUGGESTS LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THE PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 1 INCH OF
RAINFALL HAS INCREASED TO 50-60% BETWEEN PITTSBURGH AND
ZANESVILLE, OH, AND 90TH PERCENTILES (THE REASONABLE WORST CASE)
FROM 1.5 TO 2" FOR THAT AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY LEAD TO ISSUES ALONG SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS,
CAUSING ROAD CLOSURES. WPC HAS OUTLOOKED A MARGINAL (1/4) RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA.
BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF
OUR AREA -- ENDING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
COULD MIX WITH SNOW AS COLD ADVECTION RAMPS UP. HOWEVER, ANY
ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THE HIGH SUN ANGLE, WEAK
FORCING, AND ADVANCING DRY AIR.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AREAS OF MID LEVEL CLOUD CIGS WILL
CONTINUE IN WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. LIGHT WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH AT 5-10KT BY LATE THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR CIG RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION, AND WARM MOIST ADVECTION
CONTINUES. WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT. WIND WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SW AT 10-15KT THURSDAY NIGHT, AND SHIFT TO THE NW WITH FROPA.
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY END FROM N-S LATER FRIDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. VFR SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN/RACKLEY
AVIATION...WM
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