562
FXUS61 KPBZ 250708
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
308 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED, WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE AND FLOODING LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT BRINGS CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY.
2) HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PROMPT ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS EARLY
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
TODAY WILL BE QUIET AND DRY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THURSDAY MORNING, MAINLY IN EASTERN OHIO, DUE TO REMNANT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDWEST AND ADVANCING EAST FROM A
WARM FRONT. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR BETWEEN 8AM
AND 11AM.
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BETWEEN 6PM AND 9PM THURSDAY WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT AND TROUGH. AS THE FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCES SOUTH, A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OT SEVERE, BRINGING WIND GUSTS,
HAIL, AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY
BE BETWEEN 10PM THURSDAY TO 2AM FRIDAY. AFTER 2AM, THE PRIMARY
CONCERN SHIFTS TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)
CONTINUES A "MARGINAL" (1/5) RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION AND "SLIGHT" (2/5) RISK FOR CENTRAL AND
WESTERN OHIO.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE COLD FRONT'S SLOW MOVEMENT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, DRIVEN BY
DEEP ZONAL FLOW OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, MAY LEAD TO
ISOLATED FLOODING FROM PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE PROBABILITY OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN RANGES FROM 60-70%
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION. BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING, A
NARROW AREA STRETCHING FROM EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA MAY RECEIVE AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES OF RAIN. THE
PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING IS BETWEEN 40-50%. THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) HAS "MARGINAL" RISK FOR FLOODING ACROSS
OUR REGION.
RAIN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WILL LIKELY DECREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH BETWEEN 8AM TO 11AM FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, CREEKS AND
STREAM LEVELS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO RUNOFF INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AREAS OF MID LEVEL CLOUD CIGS WILL
CONTINUE IN WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. LIGHT WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH AT 5-10KT BY LATE THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR CIG RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION, AND WARM MOIST ADVECTION
CONTINUES. WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT. WIND WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SW AT 10-15KT THURSDAY NIGHT, AND SHIFT TO THE NW WITH FROPA.
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY END FROM N-S LATER FRIDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. VFR SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...WM
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