841
FXUS61 KPBZ 252341
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
741 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED. THE SLIGHT RISK FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT SEVERE WEATHER, WHICH WAS TO OUR WEST, HAS BEEN
EXTENDED INTO EASTERN OHIO. A MARGINAL RISK FOR FLOODING REMAINS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT BRINGS CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY.
2) HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PROMPT ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS EARLY
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
REMNANT CONVECTION FROM THE MIDWEST WILL DRIFT INTO THE REGION
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST CAMS KEEP THIS ACTIVITY MOSTLY
SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA, BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
AFTER A GENERAL LULL THURSDAY AFTERNOON, A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PROGRESS INTO OUR AREA FROM
THE NNW THURSDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A FEW STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WINDOW
FROM 8PM (NORTH OF PITTSBURGH) THROUGH AROUND 2AM. AFTER 2AM,
THE PRIMARY THREAT SHIFTS TO FLOODING (SEE BELOW).
THE MAIN BOTTLENECK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS
TO BE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY AND TIMING. CAMS FORECAST
RELATIVELY MEAGER SFC-BASED CAPE EVEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
OVERCAST CONDITIONS STYMIE SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WARMING. HOWEVER,
WIND SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION, WITH 0-1KM AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AVERAGING 50
AND 60 KTS, RESPECTIVELY. IF WE REMAIN UNSTABLE AT THE SURFACE,
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT, AND
HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HAIL IS ALSO
A THREAT, BUT MINOR COMPARED TO WIND OR TORNADOES.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS EXTENDED THE SLIGHT RISK
(2/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER INTO EASTERN OHIO. A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARDS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, DRIVEN BY DEEP ZONAL FLOW OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
THIS MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED FLOODING FROM PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
THE PROBABILITY OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN RANGES FROM 60-70%
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION. BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING, A
NARROW AREA STRETCHING FROM EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA MAY RECEIVE AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES OF RAIN. THE
PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING IS BETWEEN 40-50%. THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) HAS A "MARGINAL" RISK FOR FLOODING
ACROSS OUR REGION.
RAIN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WILL LIKELY DECREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH BETWEEN 8AM TO 11AM FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, CREEKS AND
STREAM LEVELS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO RUNOFF INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND POSSIBLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE 24HR TAF PERIOD AT MOST PORTS. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO FILTER THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN EARLY TOMORROW.
LIGHT SWERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KTS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
A COUPLE OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF PIT
IN WAA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. VCSH HAS BEEN LEFT IN PORTS WHERE
THESE SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY. ELSEWHERE, PROB30S HAVE BEEN
INTRODUCED OR SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REMOVED WHERE CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE IS LOWER.
SWERLY WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP AND GUST BETWEEN 15-25 KTS FOR
MOST PORTS BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY THURSDAY. PREVIOUS MODELING
FAVORED A QUICK INTRODUCTION OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING BUT INCREASING WAA, MIXING AND DRY NEAR-SURFACE AIR MAY
PRECLUDE THIS. RECENT HIGH-RES MODELING HAS BACKED OFF OF THIS
PRESENTATION DRASTICALLY AND THESE TAFS FAVOR A DRIER LOW-LEVEL
SCENARIO PROMOTING EXTENDED VFR, POSSIBLY AS LATE AS THURSDAY
EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
THE CURRENT 24HR TAF PERIOD. INITIAL ONSET TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN, BUT NEWER HIGH-RES MODEL RUNS ARE FAVORING EARLIER
DEVELOPMENT IN FRONT OF THE SFC COLD FRONT THAT LIKELY DOESN'T
CROSS THE REGION UNTIL 00- 12Z FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
CROSSING COLD FRONT. THESE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE HEAVY OR SEVERE
AND BRING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE
WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AFTER FROPA.
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY END FROM N-S LATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. VFR
SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN/RACKLEY
AVIATION...LUPO/AK
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