228
FXUS61 KPBZ 261806
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
206 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
HAS BEEN EXPANDED EAST INTO HANCOCK COUNTY, WV AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF MERCER, LAWRENCE, AND BEAVER COUNTIES (PA). A WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN PRESTON AND TUCKER COUNTIES FOR GUSTS UP TO
50-55 MPH.
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING HAS INCREASED, WITH PORTIONS OF EASTERN
OHIO, NORTHERN WV PANHANDLE, AND WESTERN PA BEING UPGRADED TO A
SLIGHT RISK FOR FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG A
STRONG COLD FRONT. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.
2) LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLOODING TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE SITUATED FROM NORTHERN INDIANA
EXTENDING ENE'WARD THROUGH SOUTHERN LAKE ERIE BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY BUILDING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES.
A LOW AND MID LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SHEAR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, WITH 65-75KT FROM 0-6KM. THERE COULD BE A FEW CELLS OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN LINE AS WELL. A SLIGHT VEERING WIND PROFILE, AND
RESULTING CURVED HODOGRAPHS, INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ROTATION IN
SOME OF THESE STORMS. MUCAPE IS PROGGED FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. WITH
THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR ALSO IN PLACE, THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS WITH THE LINE AS WELL. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE LINE
OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS, THOUGH SOME LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS EXTENDED THE ENHANCED RISK, OR LEVEL
3 OUT OF 5, FOR SEVERE STORMS EXPANDED EAST INTO HANCOCK COUNTY, WV
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF MERCER, LAWRENCE, AND BEAVER COUNTIES (PA).
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH A MORE FAVORABLE TIME OF ARRIVAL OF THE
STORMS (EARLIER IN THE EVENING), MAXIMIZING THE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY.
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE BY LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT, AS THE FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD.
THE SPEED OF THE FRONT ITSELF WILL LIKELY BE SLOW WITH THE FLOW
ALOFT NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. EXPECT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL TO
BE SOUTH OF PIT BY MIDNIGHT, ENDING DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE, AND
COULD RESULT IN A FLOOD POTENTIAL (SEE KEY MESSAGE 2.)
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A SLOW PROGRESSION TO THE COLD FRONT COULD
RESULT IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL, FROM CONVECTION AND
POST FRONTAL HEAVY RAIN. A BAND OF PWATS RANGING FROM 1.2 TO 1.4 IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONT OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
PROBABILITIES SHOW A 45%-65% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN
ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO COLUMBIANA-BEAVER-
BUTLER COUNTIES.
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS GENERAL 2 INCHES OVER 6 HOURS, WITH 3 HOURS
VALUES GENERALLY 1.5 INCHES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE, BOTH FROM NBM AND HREF, HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING THIS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. STREAM/CREEKS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE REST OF FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
DUE TO RUNOFF FROM THE EXPECTED RAINFALL.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE THE
ARRIVAL OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING. A LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SOUTH, NEARING
FKL AROUND 22Z, AND TO PIT IN THE 00-01Z TIMEFRAME. A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
AT THIS TIME. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED AFTER INITIAL STORM
ARRIVAL, EVENTUALLY CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER AROUND
09Z.
CIG AND VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS. WIDESPREAD MVFR SHOULD SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING,
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS IN MORE STRATIFORM RAIN
AFTER AROUND 04Z. STORMS MAY INITIALLY BE STRONG TO SEVERE,
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN THE VICINITY OF TERMINALS.
CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND THE
EXITING RAIN, WITH VFR RETURN ANTICIPATED AREAWIDE BEFORE 18Z
FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY, KEEPING GENERAL VFR IN THE FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS RETURN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
WVZ512-514.
DISCUSSION...WM/LUPO
AVIATION...HEFFERAN/RACKLEY
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