506
FXUS61 KPBZ 090638
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
238 AM EDT THU APR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA UNTIL 10AM APRIL 9TH. LOW HUMIDITY AND INCREASING
WIND WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGHEST FRIDAY NIGHT.
2) FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH A COUPLE NOTABLE
EXCEPTIONS:
- A GLANCING BLOW FROM A WEAK FRONT PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY
SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTH OF I-80 DURING LATE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. CHANCES OF SEVERE
WEATHER REMAIN LOW WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR AND DCAPE
REMAINING LIMITED (95% CHANCE OF DCAPE <500 J/KG).
- A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND BRING HIGHER CHANCES OF
RAIN. WITH MOST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING SATURATION ALOFT AND
DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE, ACHIEVING MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE
DIFFICULT, KEEPING SEVERE CHANCES LOW BUT POSSIBLY STILL
SUPPORTING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. LREF HAS A 90% CHANCE OF <0.3"
OF QPF, SO HEAVY RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A NOTABLE THREAT
AT THIS TIME EITHER.
EARLY-SEASON HEAT WILL BRING IN LIMITED HEAT RISK AS CHANCES OF
HIGHS EXCEEDING 80F INCREASE IN THE SUNDAY TO TUESDAY PERIOD
WITH CONTINUED RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. WEAK
MOISTURE ADVECTION IN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD HELP MITIGATE
RH'S TANKING AS THEY DID YESTERDAY AFTERNOON, BUT MINIMUM RH IS
STILL FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S PERCENT
RANGE. THIS, COUPLED WITH INCREASING WINDS (GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH)
AND DRYING FUELS, WILL WARRANT CLOSE MONITORING OF FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DIMINISH ON FRIDAY FOR AREAS NORTH OF
I-80 THANKS TO THE ADDED MOISTURE FROM THIS EVENING'S FRONT AND
SHOWERS/STORMS. HOWEVER, FARTHER SOUTH THE CURRENT CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE RIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THEREFORE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL LINGER UNTIL THE SECOND COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CLOUDS
ENCROACH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS
FORECAST TO FRESHEN AND GRADUALLY VEER MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
BY THE MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION WILL RESULT IN WINDS GUSTING UP TO
20 KTS DURING THE DAY.
TOMORROW NIGHT, THE SOUTHERN END OF THAT PASSING LOW MAY BRING
SOME LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCES (20-30 PERCENT) TO FKL/DUJ.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP ENOUGH LAPSE RATES TO POTENTIALLY
SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION OF TS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE
ABUNDANCE OF PRECEDING DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS, EXPECT VFR
TO CONTINUE OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, BUT CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WILL INCREASE IN AND AROUND ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.
OUTLOOK...
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
ARE FORECAST LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE PASSING OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT. VFR IS FAVORED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ012-021-509.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ510-511.
DISCUSSION...CERMAK/MILCAREK
AVIATION...CERMAK
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