625
FXUS61 KPBZ 091702
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
102 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
OVERALL MESSAGING OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE REMAINS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) OUTSIDE OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, DRY WEATHER PERSISTS AS TEMPERATURE APPROACHES NEAR
RECORD LEVELS NEXT WEEK.
2) FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SHOWERS MAY APPROACH THE I-80 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLS WHILE THE UPPER SHORTWAVE HEADS TOWARD
EASTERN CANADA. AN ENSUING SHORTWAVE WILL REIGNITE SOUTHEAST
MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, CREATE MORE WIDESPREAD GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
MEAN SBCAPE VALUES FOR EACH PERIOD NEVER EXCEEDS 200 J/KG
SUGGESTS LITTLE LIGHTNING THREAT, LET ALONE SEVERE.
OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SOUTHEAST RIDGING REESTABLISHES ITSELF SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE
A HIGH PROBABILITY (80-90% FOR MOST LOCATIONS) OF
REACHING/EXCEEDING 80 DEGREES F BY TUESDAY, NEARLY 20 DEGREES
ABOVE DAILY AVERAGES. IF ENSEMBLE MODELS TRENDS TOWARD A
WARMER/DRIER SCENARIO WITH A STRONGER RIDGE (VERSUS A SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND WETTER SCENARIO IF THE RIDGE IS WEAKER), RECORD MAX
TEMPERATURES COULD BE TIED/BROKEN (~30-60% PROBABILITY OF
RECORDS SET) ALONG WITH LIKELY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
(~70-90% PROBABILITY OF RECORDS SET).
KEY MESSAGE 2...
OBSERVATIONAL DATA ALREADY HAS MANY LOCATIONS WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE 30S TO UPPER 20S THAT, COMBINED WITH BREEZY
WIND, IS CREATING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. AN SPS WAS
ISSUED FOR THE MOST SENSITIVE AREAS TODAY WHERE CONDITIONS
APPROACH (BUT FALL SHORT) FOR RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. FIRE
WEATHER RISKS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON OF FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT DUE TO
MINIMIZED MOIST ADVECTION WHILE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS DAILY
AVERAGES.
COOLER TEMPERATURE AND ELEVATED DEWPOINTS (NOT TO MENTION, RAIN)
EASE CONCERNS FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY. BUT RESUMPTION OF A
SIMILAR WEAK FLOW, BUILDING RIDGE THAT SEES DRY AIR MIX TO THE
SURFACE COULD CREATE ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOW LONG THEY PERSIST WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
WHERE THE AXIS OF MOISTURE/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS WITH RESPECT
TO THE RIDGE TOP AND DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURNS IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. A PASSING SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE AT FKL
THROUGH 00Z. THE PRECIP LIFTS NORTH JUST A TAD BEFORE THE
SHOWERS GET TO DUJ.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
WITH SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS AROUND 18 KNOTS AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH 00Z AND THE OVERNIGHT. A FEW SMALL INSTANCES OF LLWS IS
POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT MAINLY OVER FKL AND DUJ THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. VFR WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A SINKING COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS TIMING HAS THE LINE ALMOST
TO FKL BY 18Z.
OUTLOOK...
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
ARE FORECAST LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE PASSING OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT. VFR IS FAVORED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRAZIER
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
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