507
FXUS61 KPBZ 100519
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
119 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATE TO AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) OUTSIDE OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, DRY WEATHER PERSISTS AS TEMPERATURE APPROACHES NEAR
RECORD LEVELS NEXT WEEK.
2) FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A PASSING COLD FRONT, FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING,
WILL IGNITE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. MEAN SBCAPE VALUES FOR
EACH PERIOD NEVER EXCEEDS 200 J/KG SUGGESTS LITTLE LIGHTNING
THREAT, LET ALONE SEVERE.
OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SOUTHEAST RIDGING REESTABLISHES ITSELF SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE
A HIGH PROBABILITY (80-90% FOR MOST LOCATIONS) OF
REACHING/EXCEEDING 80 DEGREES F BY TUESDAY, NEARLY 20 DEGREES
ABOVE DAILY AVERAGES. IF ENSEMBLE MODELS TRENDS TOWARD A
WARMER/DRIER SCENARIO WITH A STRONGER RIDGE (VERSUS A SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND WETTER SCENARIO IF THE RIDGE IS WEAKER), RECORD MAX
TEMPERATURES COULD BE TIED/BROKEN (~30-60% PROBABILITY OF
RECORDS SET) ALONG WITH LIKELY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
(~70-90% PROBABILITY OF RECORDS SET).
KEY MESSAGE 2...
OBSERVATIONAL DATA ALREADY HAS MANY LOCATIONS WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE 30S TO UPPER 20S THAT, COMBINED WITH BREEZY
WIND, IS CREATING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. AN SPS WAS
ISSUED FOR THE MOST SENSITIVE AREAS TODAY WHERE CONDITIONS
APPROACH (BUT FALL SHORT) FOR RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. FIRE
WEATHER RISKS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON OF FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT DUE TO
MINIMIZED MOIST ADVECTION WHILE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS DAILY
AVERAGES.
COOLER TEMPERATURE AND ELEVATED DEWPOINTS (NOT TO MENTION, RAIN)
EASE CONCERNS FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY. BUT RESUMPTION OF A
SIMILAR WEAK FLOW, BUILDING RIDGE THAT SEES DRY AIR MIX TO THE
SURFACE COULD CREATE ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOW LONG THEY PERSIST WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
WHERE THE AXIS OF MOISTURE/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS WITH RESPECT
TO THE RIDGE TOP AND DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURNS IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING WARM FRONT HAS DECREASED OVER THE
PAST 2 HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH 13Z.
FOLLOWING SUNRISE, DIURNAL MIXING WILL PROMOTE SOUTHWEST GUSTS,
RANGING BETWEEN 20 TO 30KTS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
AFTER 18Z, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND APPROACH TERMINALS NORTH OF PIT BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z.
RAIN SHOWERS, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, REDUCED VIS, AND LOWER
CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS PASSING DISTURBANCE; MAINLY MVFR
CIGS AND VIS. TERMINALS NORTH (DUJ/FKL) HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
EXPERIENCING PERIODS OF IFR CIGS FOR BRIEF PERIODS. THE
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW BUT NOT ZERO, 15-25%.
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL LIKELY EXIT THE REGION
BETWEEN 04Z AND 07Z SATURDAY. REMNANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY KEEP CIGS AROUND MVFR UNTIL SUNRISE SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
VFR IS FAVORED TO RETURN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRAZIER
AVIATION...HEFFERAN
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