235
FXUS61 KPBZ 100717
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
317 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RELATIVELY LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH A CROSSING FRONT. THEREAFTER, DRY WEATHER PERSISTS
AS TEMPERATURE APPROACHES NEAR RECORD LEVELS NEXT WEEK.
2) FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN ELEVATED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A PASSING COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RELATIVELY DEEP
MIXING AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY (UP TO NEAR 700MB) WILL RESULT
IN BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATEST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE GIVES PROBABILITIES FOR >20MPH / >30MPH / >40MPH OF
100% / 50-70% / 0% RESPECTIVELY. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL, AND
SPC HAS WESTERN PA AND OH COUNTIES COVERED WITH GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS. NEITHER CSU-MLP, SPC, OR ANALOGS GIVE ANY HINT OF
ANY SEVERE WEATHER. LATEST ENSEMBLE MEAN SBCAPE VALUES TOP OFF
AROUND 100 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND 90TH PERCENTILE VALUES
RANGE BETWEEN 200 AND 300 J/KG
DRY WEATHER RESUMES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS SOUTHEAST RIDGING
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE A HIGH
PROBABILITY (80-90% FOR MOST LOCATIONS) OF REACHING/EXCEEDING 80
DEGREES F BY TUESDAY, NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE DAILY AVERAGES.
IF ENSEMBLE MODELS TRENDS TOWARD A WARMER/DRIER SCENARIO WITH A
STRONGER RIDGE (VERSUS A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND WETTER SCENARIO IF
THE RIDGE IS WEAKER), RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES COULD BE
TIED/BROKEN (~30-60% PROBABILITY OF RECORDS SET) ALONG WITH
LIKELY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES (~70-90% PROBABILITY OF
RECORDS SET).
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN SPS MAY BE NEEDED TODAY FOR AREAS WHERE CONDITIONS APPROACH
(BUT FALL SHORT) OF RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. GUSTY WINDS
AHEAD AN APPROACHING FRONT, 10HR FUEL MOISTURE FORECAST TO BE
8-10%, AND RH VALUES AROUND 30% ON AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED. LATEST
HREF JOINT PROBABILITIES OF LESS THEN 30% RH AND 10M WIND GUSTS
>20MPH ARE UP TO BETWEEN 20 AND 40% THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH AND
EAST OF A LINE RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM ZANESVILLE TO DUBOIS.
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANYTHING ATTM, BUT MAY NEED TO CHECK
IN WITH OUR DEPT. OF FORESTRY PARTNERS IN THE AM.
COOLER TEMPERATURE AND ELEVATED DEWPOINTS (NOT TO MENTION, RAIN)
EASE CONCERNS THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY. BUT RESUMPTION OF A
SIMILAR WEAK FLOW, BUILDING RIDGE THAT SEES DRY AIR MIX TO THE
SURFACE COULD CREATE ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING WARM FRONT HAS DECREASED OVER THE
PAST 2 HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH 13Z.
FOLLOWING SUNRISE, DIURNAL MIXING WILL PROMOTE SOUTHWEST GUSTS,
RANGING BETWEEN 20 TO 30KTS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
AFTER 18Z, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND APPROACH TERMINALS NORTH OF PIT BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z.
RAIN SHOWERS, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, REDUCED VIS, AND LOWER
CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS PASSING DISTURBANCE; MAINLY MVFR
CIGS AND VIS. TERMINALS NORTH (DUJ/FKL) HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
EXPERIENCING PERIODS OF IFR CIGS FOR BRIEF PERIODS. THE
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW BUT NOT ZERO, 15-25%.
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL LIKELY EXIT THE REGION
BETWEEN 04Z AND 07Z SATURDAY. REMNANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY KEEP CIGS AROUND MVFR UNTIL SUNRISE SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
VFR IS FAVORED TO RETURN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...88
AVIATION...HEFFERAN
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