213
FXUS61 KPBZ 101712
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
112 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TRANSITIONED MESSAGING TOWARD NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURE AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURE WILL APPROACH AND POTENTIALLY EXCEED RECORD
VALUES NEXT WEEK.
2) INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEXT WEEK MAY CONTAIN
PERIODS WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FEATURING
SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGING THAT EXTENDS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEIGHT RISES AND
WARM ADVECTION WITHIN SOUTHWEST NEAR SURFACE FLOW PUSHES RETURNS
AREA TEMPERATURE CONSISTENTLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80S FOR HIGHS
AND UPPER 50S TO 60S FOR LOWS. FOR REFERENCE, THE AVERAGE
HIGH/LOW AT PITTSBURGH DURING THIS PERIOD IS 62/40, RESPECTIVELY.
THIS EARLY SPRING HEAT WILL PUT NUMEROUS HIGH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE AND HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT THREAT OF
BEING TIED OR BROKEN; NBM PROJECTIONS SUGGEST ANYWHERE FROM
20-70 PERCENT CHANCE OF PIT TYING/BREAKING MAX T RECORDS BETWEEN
TUESDAY-FRIDAY. POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND ANY
RESULTANT CLOUD COVER (PLUS SOME HEIGHT VARIANCES) APPEARS TO BE
THE MOST LIKELY FACTOR FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS TO FALL
SHORT OF CURRENT FORECASTED VALUES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
INCOMING SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRIEFLY END FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. ENOUGH DRY AIR AND RISING TEMPERATURE COULD
RESULT IN MARGINAL FIRE CONCERNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY,
BUT THE SIGNAL IS NOT AS STRONG.
THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOK IS THE BIGGER STORY AS THE COMBINATION OF
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND
PERIODIC SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT OVER THE RIDGE AXIS CREATES PERIODIC
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STARTING MONDAY AND THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING
WEEK. EARLY WEEK CONVECTION IS FAVORED TO BE MORE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POP-UP STORMS IN MEAGER (LESS THAN 1000 J/KG CAPE)
STORM ENVIRONMENTS SUGGESTING LIMITED SEVERE CONCERNS. BETTER
UPPER DYNAMICS AND IMPROVED STORM ENVIRONMENTS MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK THAT BEARS MONITORING IN THE
COMING 3-5 DAYS FOR THEIR SEVERE POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THE
ONSET OF THE PRECIP. THE 19Z TO 23Z TIMEFRAME WILL BE THE TIME
PERIOD OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT AND BEHIND AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRESS THROUGH.
THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE DUE TO CIGS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHWEST WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS. THIS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
BY 23Z TO 02Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS BUT
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
VFR IS FAVORED TO RETURN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRAZIER
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
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