810
FXUS61 KPBZ 102336
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
736 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RECORD TEMPERATURES AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) POTENTIAL FOR RECORD TEMPERATURES
2) THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FEATURING
SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGING THAT EXTENDS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEIGHT RISES AND
WARM ADVECTION WITHIN SOUTHWEST NEAR SURFACE FLOW PUSHES RETURNS
AREA TEMPERATURE CONSISTENTLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80S FOR HIGHS
AND UPPER 50S TO 60S FOR LOWS. FOR REFERENCE, THE AVERAGE
HIGH/LOW AT PITTSBURGH DURING THIS PERIOD IS 62/40, RESPECTIVELY.
THIS EARLY SPRING HEAT WILL PUT NUMEROUS HIGH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE AND HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT THREAT OF
BEING TIED OR BROKEN; NBM PROJECTIONS SUGGEST ANYWHERE FROM
20-70 PERCENT CHANCE OF PIT TYING/BREAKING MAX T RECORDS BETWEEN
TUESDAY-FRIDAY. POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND ANY
RESULTANT CLOUD COVER (PLUS SOME HEIGHT VARIANCES) APPEARS TO BE
THE MOST LIKELY FACTOR FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS TO FALL
SHORT OF CURRENT FORECASTED VALUES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY AND THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK. EARLY WEEK CONVECTION IS FAVORED TO BE MORE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POP-UP STORMS IN MEAGER (LESS THAN 1000
J/KG CAPE) STORM ENVIRONMENTS SUGGESTING LIMITED SEVERE
CONCERNS. BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS AND IMPROVED STORM ENVIRONMENTS
MAY DEVELOP DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK THAT BEARS
MONITORING IN THE COMING 3-5 DAYS FOR THEIR SEVERE POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING, WITH SHOWERS, MAINLY BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT A
DETERIORATION TO IFR OR LOW MVFR FOR ALL AIRPORTS AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES AFTER FROPA. IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
RESULTS IN DECREASING CLOUDS AND A RETURN TO VFR.
OUTLOOK...
VFR IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA, AND THEN STALLS.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRAZIER
AVIATION...WM
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