858
FXUS61 KPBZ 111116
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
716 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RECORD TEMPERATURES AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) POTENTIAL FOR RECORD TEMPERATURES
2) THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS AND WARM ADVECTION
WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH AREA TEMPERATURES UP INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO 80S FOR HIGHS AND UPPER 50S TO 60S FOR LOWS.
FOR REFERENCE, THE AVERAGE HIGH/LOW AT PITTSBURGH DURING THIS
PERIOD IS 62/40, RESPECTIVELY.
THIS EARLY SPRING HEAT WILL PUT NUMEROUS HIGH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE AND HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT THREAT OF
BEING TIED OR BROKEN; LATEST NBM PROJECTIONS SHOW AROUND A 50%
CHANCE OF RECORD BREAKING HIGHS AND 70-95% OF BREAKING RECORD
HIGH MINS NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AND ANY RESULTANT CLOUD COVER (PLUS SOME HEIGHT
VARIANCES) WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY FACTOR FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE
READINGS TO FALL SHORT OF CURRENT FORECASTED VALUES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AND LOOK
TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. OVERALL, CONVECTION LOOKS
TO BE TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN MEAGER (LESS THAN 1000
J/KG CAPE) STORM ENVIRONMENTS SUGGESTING LIMITED SEVERE
CONCERNS. LATEST CSU-MLP DATA HINTS AT POSSIBLE SEVERE THREATS,
BUT THIS IS NOT REFLECTED IN LATEST ANALOGS OR SPC GUIDANCE AT
THIS TIME. IT BEARS WATCHING THOUGH. BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS AND
IMPROVED STORM ENVIRONMENTS LOOK MORE LIKELY DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS CONTINUE ACROSS SOME TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM THE NORTH, AND THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING. EXPECT A RETURN TO
VFR AS THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATE WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE UNDER
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE REGION BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
VFR IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA, AND THEN STALLS.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRAZIER/88
AVIATION...WM/SHALLENBERGER
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