635
FXUS61 KPBZ 111620
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1220 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HEAT AND DAILY STORM CHANCES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.
2) INCREASING DAILY STORM CHANCES THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CONTINUED RIDGING WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, KEEPING
HIGH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 15F TO 25F ABOVE AVERAGE, AND LOWS 20F
TO 30F ABOVE NORMAL. THIS EARLY-SEASON HEAT MAY POSE MINOR HEAT
RISK, PARTICULARLY GIVEN IT'S THE FIRST EXTENDED DURATION OF
HEAT THIS YEAR. BOUTS OF MODERATE HEAT RISK ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FOR URBAN RIVER VALLEYS BY MID-WEEK. THIS GENERALLY ONLY IMPACTS
THOSE WHICH ARE SENSITIVE OR EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND
WITHOUT COOLING/HYDRATION.
AREA RECORD HIGHS HAVE A 50/50 SHOT AT BEING BROKEN ON
WEDNESDAY. RECORD MAX LOWS HAVE A RISK OF BEING BROKEN
EVERYWHERE FOR MOST OF THE WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN
EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE BIGGEST FAILURE MODE FOR NOT REACHING RECORDS
WILL BE AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES (AND AFFILIATED CLOUD COVER).
SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE INTO THE WORK-WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES
>30% PEAKING EACH AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH RETURNING
MOISTURE AND >75% CHANCE OF NON-ZERO AFTERNOON BUOYANCY. THE REGION
WILL REMAIN PARKED UNDERNEATH A RIDGE AXIS WITH MULTIPLE SYSTEMS
LIKELY TO PASS TO THE NORTHWEST; THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION AND SEVERE WEATHER, ALONG WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
INITIATION AND HIGHER SHEAR REMAIN NORTHWEST FOR NOW. LOCALLY,
THESE SYSTEMS ARE FAVORED TO SKIRT THE AREA, PROVIDING DAILY,
LOW (BUT NON- ZERO) CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY AND BEYOND
(CSU MLP HAS ~5% WITHIN 25MI EACH DAY). CIPS INDICATE CHANCES
MAY INCREASE SOME WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AS ENSEMBLES FAVOR SOME
MINOR RIDGE FLATTENING, BRINGING STORM CHANCES FARTHER
SOUTHEAST.
AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS CONTINUE ACROSS SOME TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM THE NORTH, AND THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING. EXPECT A RETURN TO
VFR AS THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATE WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE UNDER
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE REGION BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
VFR IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA, AND THEN STALLS.
CLIMATE
SEE BELOW FOR RECORD MAX HIGHS AND MAX LOWS THIS WEEK:
MONDAY, APRIL 14TH MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 84F (1941) 65F (2018)
WHEELING, WV: 86F (1941) 63F (2018)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 85F (2018) 67F (2014)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 83F (2018) 63F (2018)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 87F (1941) 63F (1899)
DUBOIS, PA: 82F (2023) 59F (2014)
TUESDAY, APRIL 15TH: MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 86F (1883) 64F (1896)
WHEELING, WV: 87F (1941) 60F (2014)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 86F (2018) 66F (2014)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 82F (2023) 56F (2006)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 87F (1941) 60F (1899)
DUBOIS, PA: 86F (2023) 60F (2014)
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 16TH: MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 85F (1883) 61F (1967)
WHEELING, WV: 82F (2010) 59F (2002)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 86F (1993) 65F (1967)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 82F (2010) 58F (2023)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 85F (1941) 61F (1972)
DUBOIS, PA: 79F (2003) 56F (2002)
THURSDAY, APRIL 17TH: MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 86F (2002) 63F (2017)
WHEELING, WV: 86F (1945) 64F (2002)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 88F (2002) 64F (2012)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 85F (2002) 62F (2017)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 86F (2002) 65F (1912)
DUBOIS, PA: 82F (2012) 59F (1976)
FRIDAY, APRIL 18TH: MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 87F (1896) 63F (1896)
WHEELING, WV: 84F (2002) 64F (2002)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 89F (1976) 64F (1960)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 84F (2002) 60F (1982)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 88F (1896) 66F (1896)
DUBOIS, PA: 83F (2002) 60F (2002)
SATURDAY, APRIL 19TH: MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 90F (1896) 64F (1896)
WHEELING, WV: 85F (2025) 63F (2002)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 92F (1976) 64F (2013)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 86F (1976) 57F (2019)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 92F (1896) 66F (1896)
DUBOIS, PA: 87F (1976) 61F (2002)
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MILCAREK
AVIATION...WM/SHALLENBERGER
CLIMATE...MILCAREK
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