343
FXUS61 KPBZ 120644
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
244 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HEAT AND DAILY STORM CHANCES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.
2) INCREASING DAILY STORM CHANCES THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEK, WHICH WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS AND LOWS ROUGHLYFURTHER
20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. THE NWS HEATRISK
TOOL SHOWS A PERSISTENT MINOR HEAT RISK ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEK, WHICH MEANS IMPACTS WILL BE PRIMARILY FOR THOSE WHO ARE
EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND WITHOUT COOLING/HYDRATION.
LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS25-75% PROBABILITIES OF AREA
RECORD HIGHS BEING HIT (VARYING EACH DAY) OVER THE COURSE OF THE
WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NEW
HIGH MINIMUM RECORD PROBABILITIES RANGE FROM 25-99%. THE BIGGEST
FAILURE MODE FOR NOT REACHING RECORDS WILL BE AFTERNOON STORM
CHANCES (AND AFFILIATED CLOUD COVER). SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION
FOR MORE INFORMATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE INTO THE WORK-WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES
>30% PEAKING EACH AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS
NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE BIG UNCERTAINTY IS IF THERE WILL BE ANY
TRIGGER FOR STORM INITIATION AS THE REGION REMAINS WELL WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR. AT THIS TIME. STORMS LOOK MORE LIKELY TO BE
LARGELY NORTH OF THE REGION WITH WHERE THERE IS MORE SHEAR AND
CHANCE OF INITIATION, BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE (CSU MLP HAS
~5% WITHIN 25MI EACH DAY). CIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES CHANCES MAY
INCREASE SOME BY MIDWEEK, AND ENSEMBLES FAVOR SOME MINOR RIDGE
FLATTENING AS WELL, WHICH WOULD BRING STORM CHANCES FARTHER
SOUTHEAST WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE REGION SAGGING
SOUTH.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. A
VEERING WIND IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST
OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY, WITH A SOUTH WIND AROUND 10KT.
OUTLOOK...
THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURN MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG IT.
CLIMATE
SEE BELOW FOR RECORD MAX HIGHS AND MAX LOWS THIS WEEK:
MONDAY, APRIL 14TH MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 84F (1941) 65F (2018)
WHEELING, WV: 86F (1941) 63F (2018)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 85F (2018) 67F (2014)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 83F (2018) 63F (2018)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 87F (1941) 63F (1899)
DUBOIS, PA: 82F (2023) 59F (2014)
TUESDAY, APRIL 15TH: MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 86F (1883) 64F (1896)
WHEELING, WV: 87F (1941) 60F (2014)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 86F (2018) 66F (2014)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 82F (2023) 56F (2006)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 87F (1941) 60F (1899)
DUBOIS, PA: 86F (2023) 60F (2014)
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 16TH: MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 85F (1883) 61F (1967)
WHEELING, WV: 82F (2010) 59F (2002)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 86F (1993) 65F (1967)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 82F (2010) 58F (2023)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 85F (1941) 61F (1972)
DUBOIS, PA: 79F (2003) 56F (2002)
THURSDAY, APRIL 17TH: MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 86F (2002) 63F (2017)
WHEELING, WV: 86F (1945) 64F (2002)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 88F (2002) 64F (2012)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 85F (2002) 62F (2017)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 86F (2002) 65F (1912)
DUBOIS, PA: 82F (2012) 59F (1976)
FRIDAY, APRIL 18TH: MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 87F (1896) 63F (1896)
WHEELING, WV: 84F (2002) 64F (2002)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 89F (1976) 64F (1960)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 84F (2002) 60F (1982)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 88F (1896) 66F (1896)
DUBOIS, PA: 83F (2002) 60F (2002)
SATURDAY, APRIL 19TH: MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 90F (1896) 64F (1896)
WHEELING, WV: 85F (2025) 63F (2002)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 92F (1976) 64F (2013)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 86F (1976) 57F (2019)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 92F (1896) 66F (1896)
DUBOIS, PA: 87F (1976) 61F (2002)
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MILCAREK/88
AVIATION...FRAZIER
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