284
FXUS61 KPBZ 121705
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
105 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HEAT (ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES)
AND DAILY STORM CHANCES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.
2) INCREASING DAILY STORM CHANCES THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS AND LOWS ROUGHLY
FURTHER 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. IN SOME
CASES, THE HEIGHT CENTER OVER THE GULF WILL BE JUST OVER 588
DECAMETERS. CERTAINLY UNCOMMON FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE NWS
HEATRISK TOOL SHOWS A PERSISTENT MINOR HEAT RISK ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEK, WHICH MEANS IMPACTS WILL BE PRIMARILY FOR
THOSE WHO ARE EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND WITHOUT
COOLING/HYDRATION. THE DAY WITH THE LARGEST AREA OF HEAT RISK
CONCERN APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY. LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS
25-75% PROBABILITIES OF AREA RECORD HIGHS BEING HIT (VARYING
EACH DAY) OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. NEW HIGH MINIMUM RECORD
PROBABILITIES RANGE FROM 25-99%. THE BIGGEST FAILURE MODE FOR
NOT REACHING RECORDS WILL BE AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES (AND
AFFILIATED CLOUD COVER). SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A PERSISTENT RETURN-FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EAST COAST WITH THE 850MB CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
KEEPS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS DRY BUT SETS THE MAIN AXIS OF
MOISTURE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE MS VALLEY AND THEN
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO TRACK ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE
UPPER PORTION. THIS WILL FEATURE A DAILY CHANCE OD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE NBM GIVING
A 50% CHANCE OD THUNDER. NO MARGINAL RISK HAS BEEN INTRODUCED
YET BUT PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASING FOR AT LEAST 1000 J/KG FOR
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THAT PROB IS AT A HEALTHY 60% TO 80%
BUT MAINLY OVER IN OHIO. PRECIP CHANCES WILL FOLLOW EACH DAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK AND EVEN INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. A
VEERING WIND IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST
OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY, WITH A SOUTH WIND AROUND 10KT.
RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS CHANCES APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE. RAIN IS LIKELY FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD AT EACH PORT, BUT MOST RESTRICTION CHANCES INCREASE AFTER
12Z (HIGHEST FOR DUJ/FKL).
OUTLOOK...
THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURN MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG IT.
CLIMATE
SEE BELOW FOR RECORD MAX HIGHS AND MAX LOWS THIS WEEK:
MONDAY, APRIL 14TH MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 84F (1941) 65F (2018)
WHEELING, WV: 86F (1941) 63F (2018)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 85F (2018) 67F (2014)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 83F (2018) 63F (2018)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 87F (1941) 63F (1899)
DUBOIS, PA: 82F (2023) 59F (2014)
TUESDAY, APRIL 15TH: MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 86F (1883) 64F (1896)
WHEELING, WV: 87F (1941) 60F (2014)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 86F (2018) 66F (2014)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 82F (2023) 56F (2006)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 87F (1941) 60F (1899)
DUBOIS, PA: 86F (2023) 60F (2014)
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 16TH: MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 85F (1883) 61F (1967)
WHEELING, WV: 82F (2010) 59F (2002)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 86F (1993) 65F (1967)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 82F (2010) 58F (2023)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 85F (1941) 61F (1972)
DUBOIS, PA: 79F (2003) 56F (2002)
THURSDAY, APRIL 17TH: MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 86F (2002) 63F (2017)
WHEELING, WV: 86F (1945) 64F (2002)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 88F (2002) 64F (2012)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 85F (2002) 62F (2017)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 86F (2002) 65F (1912)
DUBOIS, PA: 82F (2012) 59F (1976)
FRIDAY, APRIL 18TH: MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 87F (1896) 63F (1896)
WHEELING, WV: 84F (2002) 64F (2002)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 89F (1976) 64F (1960)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 84F (2002) 60F (1982)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 88F (1896) 66F (1896)
DUBOIS, PA: 83F (2002) 60F (2002)
SATURDAY, APRIL 19TH: MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 90F (1896) 64F (1896)
WHEELING, WV: 85F (2025) 63F (2002)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 92F (1976) 64F (2013)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 86F (1976) 57F (2019)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 92F (1896) 66F (1896)
DUBOIS, PA: 87F (1976) 61F (2002)
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...FRAZIER/MILCAREK
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