999
FXUS61 KPBZ 131109
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
709 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MOST NEAR TERM UPDATES WERE TO MASSAGE POPS DAY 1 IN THE
OPENING WARM SECTOR. PROBABILITIES FOR RECORD TEMPERATURES HAVE
NOT MOVED MUCH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES FOR
TUESDAY LOOK TO BE ON THE RISE AT THIS TIME. STORMS LOOK MOST
LIKELY NORTH AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH AND POSE A HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND THREAT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. DAILY RECORD HIGH
MAX AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGED AND POSSIBLY
BROKEN.
2) INCREASING DAILY STORM CHANCES THIS WEEK. MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY NORTH AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE HEADLINES, AS A 500MB
RIDGE NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WILL SPUR HIGH TEMPERATURES NEARLY 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK. THE CORE OF THE RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN GULF PEAKS NEAR 590DAM ON MOST
GUIDANCE. AT THE SFC, A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION
TODAY AND THE RESULTING COLD FRONT STALLS OUT OVER THE GREAT
LAKES OVER THE COMING DAYS. THIS LENDS SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE DAYS
OF CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION INTO THE
REGION.
PROBABILITIES OF HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER 80 DEGREES SIT OVER 60%
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF I-80 EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY-
SATURDAY. PROBABILITIES OF HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER 85 DEGREES FOR
THE SAME TIME FRAME ARE LARGELY OVER 40% EACH DAY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH AND PEAK BETWEEN 70-80% WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAY. MANY
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE CHALLENGED OR BROKEN DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. PITTSBURGH, ZANESVILLE, WHEELING AND
MORGANTOWN EYE OVER 40% PROBABILITIES TO SET OR TIE RECORDS ON
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY (PEAKING BETWEEN 75-85% FOR OUR WV
SITES ON WEDNESDAY). DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABNORMALLY WARM AS WELL THROUGH THIS PERIOD, LARGELY SITTING ~
20 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL. NEW DAILY HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
RECORDS COULD ALSO BE SET AT THE SAME SITES LISTED ABOVE, WITH
PROBABILITIES PEAKING NORTH OF 90% ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
LOCALLY, HEAT LOOKS TO PEAK ON WEDNESDAY AS 500MB HEIGHTS RISE
UP TO 580DAM. 850MB TEMPERATURES ALSO PEAK BETWEEN 14-16C ON
WEDNESDAY, SUGGESTING THAT UNHINDERED MIXING COULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE AND POSSIBLY UPPER 80S F.
ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS AT LEAST MINOR HEAT RISK FOR THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK AND EVEN LIKELY INTO SATURDAY. THIS MEANS THAT HEAT
IMPACTS WILL PRIMARILY BE FELT BY THOSE WHO ARE EXTREMELY
SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND THOSE WITHOUT COOLING/HYDRATION. A COUPLE
OF SPECKLED MODERATE HEAT RISK AREAS LOOK POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
AND SATURDAY.
THE LIMITING REAGENT TO RUNAWAY HEATING IN THIS SETUP LOOKS TO
BE CONTINUED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES, WHICH COULD LOCALLY KEEP
THE LID ON TEMPERATURES FOR AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DAYS OF PERSISTENT WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMES HAND
IN HAND WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES LOOK TO RIDE UP AND
OVER THE TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEK, EACH LIKELY PUSHING SURFACE
WAVES ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MEDIUM
RANGE MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEVERE WEATHER RISKS
TIED TO THESE WAVES IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY EACH DAY
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY.
AT THIS TIME, TUESDAY SEEMS THE MOST LIKELY DAY FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION. CONVECTION COULD BE ONGOING NEAR I-80
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHICH COULD HAMPER HEATING AND RECOVERY
BUT EVEN THE 50TH PERCENTILE FOR CAPE SHOWS IMPRESSIVE (FOR
APRIL) VALUES ACROSS THE REGION, PEAKING NEAR 1500 J/KG. LESS
MORNING CONVECTION COULD LEAD TO A "CLEANER" SETUP AND MORE
HEATING WITH CAPE VALUES POSSIBLY NEARING 1500-2000 J/KG LIKE IN
THE 75TH PERCENTILE. SHEAR LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 30-40
KTS, CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM TO HINT AT AN 850-800MB WARM LAYER,
POSSIBLY KEEPING CONVECTION ELEVATED SUPPORTING MORE OF A HAIL
THREAT. IN THIS VEIN, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NORTH OF 7C/KM
AND SHIP VALUES LOOK TO PEAK OVER 1.5, BOTH SUPPORTING SEVERE
HAIL. IF THE WARM LAYER DOESN'T MATERIALIZE, MIXES OR WET BULBS
OUT, THEN THINGS COULD GET MORE INTERESTING WITH CURVED LOW-
LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND DCAPE VALUES OVER 1000.
CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY TO FIRE TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND THEN MOVE ESE, POSSIBLY CONGEALING INTO ONE OR MORE
BOWING SEGMENTS THAT WOULD POSE A CONTINUED HAIL RISK AND AN
INCREASING RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH TIME. AT THIS TIME,
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE IN A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM SPC.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHOWERS AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND CONTINUE AS THE AREA TAPS INTO
A LOW-LEVEL JET THIS MORNING WITH A PASSING WAVE. MOST SHOWERS
ARE FORECAST TO BE THROUGH BY THEW 15Z TIMEFRAME. FORECAST WINDS
WERE INCREASED FOR MANY SITES WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 30MPH TO
40MPH BEING OBSERVED AREA-WIDE AS OF 11Z.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A MIXED LAYER IN
THE PERSISTENT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS. AN OCCASIONAL GUST
UP TO 45MPH COULDN'T BE RULED OUT, PARTICULARLY IN THE MORNING
HOURS.
WHILE MODELING CONTINUED TO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
MORNING CIG DROPS TO MVFR AT DUJ/FKL, A DEEP MIXED LAYER WITH
DRY AIR MAKES THESE DROPS LESS LIKELY.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MODELING GENERALLY HAS A LOW-
COVERAGE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO WITH
MOISTURE IN A SHEAR-LADEN ENVIRONMENT, BUT THE CONFIDENCE IN
SPATIAL PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW TO NOTE FOR NOW.
NONETHELESS, RAIN CHANCES MAY BE GENERALLY HIGHER AT BVI AND
SOUTH BEFORE 00Z, AND AT FKL/DUJ AFTER 00Z.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT, BEFORE GUSTING A BIT,
THOUGH NOT AS MUCH, INTO THE DAY TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SURFACE FRONT
APPROACHES AND STALLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND AS WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG IT.
CLIMATE
SEE BELOW FOR RECORD MAX HIGHS AND MAX LOWS THIS WEEK:
MONDAY, APRIL 14TH MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 84F (1941) 65F (2018)
WHEELING, WV: 86F (1941) 63F (2018)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 85F (2018) 67F (2014)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 83F (2018) 63F (2018)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 87F (1941) 63F (1899)
DUBOIS, PA: 82F (2023) 59F (2014)
TUESDAY, APRIL 15TH: MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 86F (1883) 64F (1896)
WHEELING, WV: 87F (1941) 60F (2014)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 86F (2018) 66F (2014)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 82F (2023) 56F (2006)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 87F (1941) 60F (1899)
DUBOIS, PA: 86F (2023) 60F (2014)
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 16TH: MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 85F (1883) 61F (1967)
WHEELING, WV: 82F (2010) 59F (2002)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 86F (1993) 65F (1967)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 82F (2010) 58F (2023)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 85F (1941) 61F (1972)
DUBOIS, PA: 79F (2003) 56F (2002)
THURSDAY, APRIL 17TH: MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 86F (2002) 63F (2017)
WHEELING, WV: 86F (1945) 64F (2002)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 88F (2002) 64F (2012)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 85F (2002) 62F (2017)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 86F (2002) 65F (1912)
DUBOIS, PA: 82F (2012) 59F (1976)
FRIDAY, APRIL 18TH: MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 87F (1896) 63F (1896)
WHEELING, WV: 84F (2002) 64F (2002)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 89F (1976) 64F (1960)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 84F (2002) 60F (1982)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 88F (1896) 66F (1896)
DUBOIS, PA: 83F (2002) 60F (2002)
SATURDAY, APRIL 19TH: MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 90F (1896) 64F (1896)
WHEELING, WV: 85F (2025) 63F (2002)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 92F (1976) 64F (2013)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 86F (1976) 57F (2019)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 92F (1896) 66F (1896)
DUBOIS, PA: 87F (1976) 61F (2002)
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AK
AVIATION...MILCAREK
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