540
FXUS61 KPBZ 300701
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
301 AM EDT THU APR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGES AND AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
1) BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR SOME FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
2) GENERALLY WET PATTERN EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY RAIN
CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE MAIN STORY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. COLD ADVECTION
AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S AREAWIDE
TONIGHT. COLDEST SPOTS WILL BE ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR/NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH AND IN THE RIDGES, WHERE CHANCES FOR 37F OR BELOW
RANGE FROM 70-100%. EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY WILL LIKELY SEE
FREEZING CONDITIONS (60% CHANCE).
INCREASING CLOUD COVER FRIDAY MAY MAKE FROST DEVELOPMENT MORE
DIFFICULT FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY, BUT CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPERATURES ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR INTO
THE LOWER 30S. FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN
FOR THAT REGION.
CLEARING SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL
DROP AREAWIDE TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 30S AND POSSIBLY UPPER
20S NORTH OF I-80 (25-30% CHANCE). FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE, BUT A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND CROSSING SURFACE LOWS WILL KEEP
DAILY RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE IN THE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME AS A COLD FRONT AND SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE CROSS THE AREA. MACHINE LEARNING DOES BROADLY
HIGHLIGHT THE REGION FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS
WITH COLD NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT AND RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PASS IN THE
VICINITY OF TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING INTO THE LATE EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER SLIGHTLY THAT SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR DUJ/FKL THAN OTHER TERMINALS.
ADVANCING DRY AIR AFTER 18Z WILL HELP IMPROVE CIGS TO VFR.
WITH POTENTIAL CLEARING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, FKL/DUJ MAY DROP
IN VIS DUE TO FOG.
OUTLOOK...
SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 12Z FRIDAY
WITH A PASSING DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
PAZ007>009-013>016-022-073>078.
OH...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
WVZ510>513.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
WVZ514.
DISCUSSION...RACKLEY
AVIATION...HEFFERAN
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