988
FXUS61 KPBZ 022328
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
728 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS TO CAPTURE ONGOING SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA-WIDE FREEZE WARNING WAS ISSUED TONIGHT
THROUGH 9AM. THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE
18Z ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE
ON MONDAY.
2) WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK
WHILE AREA TEMPERATURE GENERALLY REMAINS BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SKIES CLEAR APPRECIABLY AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT SETTING THE TABLE
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE TO FALL WELL BELOW AVERAGE, BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. JOINT PROBABILITIES FOR SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES, LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE LARGELY >70%
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY AND ARE >80-90% IN
SMALL AREAS OF ALMOST EVERY COUNTY. AS A RESULT, A FREEZE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
WIND DOWN BY MID-MORNING MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FROST PRODUCTS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW SWIRLING THROUGH OHIO IS EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE AT THIS TIME PUSHING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.
EARLIER THIS MORNING, THESE SHOWERS CONTAINED GRAUPEL AND SNOW.
SHOWERS WILL TURN MORE PLAIN RAIN AS TEMPERATURES RISE THIS
AFTERNOON, EXCEPT AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WHERE A LIGHT LATE
SEASON MIX REMAINS POSSIBLE.
HEIGHT RISES AND INCREASINGLY SOUTHWEST FLOW SPUR AREA
TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS NORMALS SUNDAY AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL
BY MONDAY. DESPITE THIS BRIEF WARMUP, WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW END BUT NON-ZERO SHOWER
PROBABILITIES.
BY WEDNESDAY, ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE PATTERN
SHIFTS BACK TOWARDS GREAT LAKES TROUGHING, PROMOTING A RENEWED
BATCH OF SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED SHOWER
CHANCES.
OVERALL RISK IN THE MID-TO-LONG RANGE REMAINS LOW. MID-RANGE AI
FORECASTS HAVE TRIMMED THE SEVERE RISK SOME ON TUESDAY AND PUSH
THAT RISK EAST OF US ON WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY'S THREAT WILL STILL
DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT COMPARED TO PEAK
HEATING. MODELS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A POSSIBLY SLOWER FRONTAL
PASSAGE OVERALL, WITH THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF THE 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. CONTINUED
ROUNDS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR LOW END FLOOD RISKS. AT THIS TIME THE
48HR PROBABILITY OF >2" OF RAIN PEAKS NEAR 20% ACROSS OUR OHIO
COUNTIES, BUT A POSSIBLE SECONDARY AXIS IN THE UPSLOPE REGION
NEAR THE RIDGES SEEMS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR STRATOCUMULUS REMAIN IN PLACE THIS
EVENING, WITH LOW-LEVEL NW FLOW. A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES/LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MAY REMAIN FOR AN HOUR OR TWO, WITH VIRTUALLY NO
IMPACT TO TERMINALS. SURFACE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
BY MIDNIGHT OVER MOST OF THE REGION. THE ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION SHOULD PRECLUDE RADIATION FOG FOR THE MOST
PART, ALTHOUGH A FEW INSTANCES OF STEAM FOG ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE LARGER RIVERS AS AIR TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING.
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. WIND WILL BACK SLIGHTLY
TO WEST BY MIDDAY, WITH SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS
DURING AFTERNOON MIXING.
OUTLOOK...
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
RESTRICTION AND SHOWER POTENTIAL INCREASE LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514.
DISCUSSION...AK
AVIATION...CL/CERMAK
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