025
FXUS61 KPBZ 051050
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
650 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
2) GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY
3) FROST POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY, SLOWLY SINKING
SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS THE REGION. NEARLY BOUNDARY-PARALLEL FLOW
WILL KEEP PROGRESSION SLOW, CROSSING INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW
THROUGH THE DAY, BUT SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED NORTH OF PIT
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE AFTERNOON. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
EVEN MORE LIMITED TODAY, WITH ML CAPE LESS THAN 500 J/KG AND
LIMITED SHEAR. WARM AIR ALOFT SHOULD ALSO LIMIT BUOYANCY,
CAPPING ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN PROGGED TO TRACK ALONG THE FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY AS IT STALLS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
PA, MAINTAINING MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE FRONT, WITH HIGHS
NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY EXIT THE
REGION ON THURSDAY AS FLOW TURNS MORE WNW, BUT IT WILL REMAIN IN
CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO MAINTAIN SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THURSDAY.
WHILE THE FRONT'S INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER WILL END FRIDAY,
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING WILL KEEP PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A 40-50KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA TODAY. THOUGH
STRONGEST DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS, A DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER
AND SURFACE INVERSION SHOULD KEEP GUSTY SFC WINDS AT BAY. AFTER
SUNRISE, GUSTS SHOULD RAMP UP QUICKLY WITH DEEPER MIXING.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE GUSTS OF 35MPH -- POSSIBLY OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 40-45MPH -- ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GUSTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT NUISANCE GUSTS ARE
LIKELY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FROST THURSDAY NIGHT, THOUGH THIS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE
AND THE RESULTING RADIATIONAL COOLING.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED
MORNING SHOWERS DRIFTING EAST AND SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS
INCREASING TO 20-30KTS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
BETWEEN 19Z-00Z FAVORS AN AXIS FROM KCMH IN OH THROUGH KJHW IN
NY WITH LOWERING PROBABILITIES FOR ACTIVITY BLEEDING FARTHER
SOUTHEAST (LESS THAN 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY INTO KPIT, NEAR 0 BY
KLBE/KMGW).
BROAD JET-AIDED ASCENT AHEAD OF AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE PLUS
VARIED SURFACE LOW MOVEMENT USHERS IN A LARGE PLUME OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN AFTER 00Z, THOUGH EASTWARD PROGRESSION VARIES
SLIGHTLY MODEL-TO-MODEL. THAT VARIANCE LENDS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING OF HIGHLY LIKELY CEILINGS FALLS TOWARDS IFR BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY IN SURFACE LOW POSITIONING
MAY YIELD DIFFERENT TIMING/DIRECTION/SPEED OF SURFACE WIND, BUT
TAF ATTEMPTS TO CAPTURE MOST LIKELY PROGRESSION.
OUTLOOK...
DRY ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE WILL SHIFT THE RAIN AXIS EAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE AREA RESTRICTIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TOWARD VFR THROUGH THE EVENING (LESS THAN 20%
PROBABILITY OF MVFR OR LOWER BY 00Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SAVE FOR
40% PROBABILITY OF STRATUS LINGERING NEAR KMGW).
THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND RESTRICTIONS IS MAINLY
FOCUSED NORTH OF I-80 WITH A PASSING DISTURBANCE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OCCURING BY
SATURDAY MORNING.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM/RACKLEY
AVIATION...FRAZIER
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