205
FXUS61 KPBZ 051707
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
107 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
2) FROST POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT / FRIDAY MORNING
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY (FLOW IS LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY) DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES WILL PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED NORTH OF PIT THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE AFTERNOON. JOINT PROBABILITIES OF CAPE >500 J/KG AND
SHEAR >30KTS IS 20-30%, AND CONFINED NORTH AND WEST OF PGH. SPC
HAS KEPT THE AREA TO JUST GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT IF THERE WERE ANY ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS, WINDS WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN, AND THEY WOULD BE NORTH AND WEST OF PGH.
THIS WOULD BE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING TIMEFRAME.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE FRONT, WITH HIGHS NEAR 10
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY EXIT THE REGION
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY. A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH BROAD UPPER TROUGHING PARKED OVER
THE NORTHEAST CONUS WILL THEN KEEP PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FROST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING THOUGH THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND THE RESULTING RADIATIONAL COOLING.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH SOUTHWEST
WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 20-30KTS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 20Z-00Z FAVORS AN AXIS FROM KCMH IN OH
THROUGH KJHW IN NY WITH LOWERING PROBABILITIES FOR ACTIVITY
BLEEDING FARTHER SOUTHEAST (LESS THAN 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY
INTO KPIT, NEAR 0 BY KLBE/KMGW).
BROAD JET-AIDED ASCENT AHEAD OF AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE PLUS
VARIED SURFACE LOW MOVEMENT USHERS IN A LARGE PLUME OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN AFTER 00Z, WITH THE HEAVIER PLUME CROSSING AFTER
06Z. THERE IS SOME VARIANCE IN THE TIMING OF HIGHLY LIKELY
CEILINGS FALLS TOWARDS IFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH
TRENDS SUGGESTING A SLIGHTLY LATER ONSET VERSUS THE PREVIOUS TAF
SUGGESTION. ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY IN SURFACE LOW POSITIONING
MAY YIELD DIFFERENT TIMING/DIRECTION/SPEED OF SURFACE WIND, BUT
TAF ATTEMPTS TO CAPTURE MOST LIKELY PROGRESSION.
DRY ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE WILL SHIFT THE RAIN AXIS EAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE AREA RESTRICTIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TOWARD VFR THROUGH THE EVENING (LESS THAN 20%
PROBABILITY OF MVFR OR LOWER BY 00Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SAVE FOR
40% PROBABILITY OF STRATUS LINGERING NEAR KMGW).
OUTLOOK...
VFR IS FAVORED TO START THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION AND RESTRICTIONS RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, THOUGH PRIMARILY FOR TERMINALS IN NORTHWEST PA. MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND RESTRICTION DEVELOPMENT OCCURS SATURDAY WITH
ON AND OFF PERIODS OF RAIN/RESTRICTIONS CONTINUING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM/RACKLEY/88
AVIATION...FRAZIER
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