738
FXUS61 KPBZ 221742
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
142 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FLOOD WATCH TODAY INTO TOMORROW FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
2) SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
3) WARMER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, MAINLY BETWEEN 8PM AND 6AM AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THE
REASON BEHIND THESE HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS IS STRONGER
SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN OHIO, ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS. PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS ELEVATED
(ABOVE 70%) FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THEREFORE, A FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED. ROADWAYS
NEAR CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY BE THE AREAS OF CONCERN WHEN
IT COMES TO FLOODING.
WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICTING SATURATED TEMPERATURE PROFILES
(PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.50 INCHES), INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LOW.
THEREFORE, THE PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CONSIDERED LOW AS
WELL (LESS THAN 10%) FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IF A THUNDERSTORM
EVOLVES, IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE SATURDAY EVENING AS MID-LVL DRY
AIR ADVANCES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO. LIGHTNING WOULD BE THE
MAIN THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THOUGH
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM NW-SE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS THE
UPPER SUPPORT EXITS, AND A SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION. ANOTHER CROSSING
SHORTWAVE WILL RETURN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES FOR
TUESDAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. A WEAK
TROUGH COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY, THOUGH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER BY
LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARDS TODAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN AND EVENTUAL IFR
RESTRICTIONS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT BACK NORTH LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON, REACHING PIT BY 18/19Z AND FINALLY UP TO FKL BY
MIDNIGHT. WAVES OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE EMBEDDED, MAINLY
IMPACTING THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD END NEAR 12Z SATURDAY, WITH
SHOWERS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. CEILING RESTRICTIONS WILL MAKE LITTLE IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE ONE FORECAST CHALLENGE WOULD BE THE WINDS AS THE SOUTHEAST
TRAJECTORY AND WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS WILL MAKE A
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AND MAY IMPACT THE ARRIVE OF PRECIP.
ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS SUCH AS LBE AND DUJ.
OUTLOOK...
WIDESPREAD CEILING RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE LATER SATURDAY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED RAIN CHANCE. SOME IMPROVEMENT
IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER IN THE
DAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ020-021-029-031.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WVZ001>004-012.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN/WM
AVIATION...RACKLEY
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