134
FXUS61 KPBZ 230600
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
200 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST. THE FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES THROUGH 2 PM FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA. MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS/BRIEF TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS SE OH THIS
AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN CONTINUES THIS MORNING-FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT
2) SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, WITH A
MARGINAL RISK FOR A TORNADO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE OH
3) SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WARM FRONT ADVANCING NORTHWARD, AND A LOW LEVEL JET, WILL
MAINTAIN RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
LIKELY ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES AS IT MOVES NE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MID MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH AS A GENERAL
0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES HAVE FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATCH
AREA. AREA STREAMS AND CREEKS ARE ALSO ELEVATED, AND THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLOODING. THE LATEST HREF
INDICATES A PROBABILITY OF 50-80 PERCENT CHANCE OF 6 HR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF INCH OR GREATER, WITH PROBABILITIES OF 1
INCH IN 6 HOURS 30 PERCENT OR LESS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
STRATIFORM RAIN IN WARM ADVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ARE THEN EXPECTED TO ADVANCE ACROSS OHIO
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AREAS ACROSS OH, SOUTHEAST OF THE
SURFACE LOW, ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK THE SURFACE INVERSION AND
MIX OUT SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SURFACE
CAPE DEVELOPING, RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG AROUND THE ZZV
AREA, WITH VALUES DECREASING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST. THERE IS A
VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT, WITH LOW LCLS (LIFTING
CONDENSATION LEVELS) ALSO EXPECTED. THIS COULD RESULT IN A
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TORNADOES TO DEVELOP SHOULD CONVECTION
BECOME ORGANIZED. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED THE
AREA ACROSS EASTERN OHIO IN A MARGINAL RISK, OR LEVEL 1 OUT OF
5, FOR SEVERE STORMS, WITH THE MAIN HAZARD BRIEF TORNADOES. THE
THREAT SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF
SURFACE BASED CAPE. FURTHER TO THE EAST, A STRONG SURFACE
INVERSION SHOULD PERSIST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW/BOUNDARY.
WHILE A THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE, ANY INSTABILITY WOULD
BE ELEVATED AND LIMITED.
THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT, WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
IN ADDITION, GUSTY SE DOWNSLOPE WIND IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN SLOPE OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTS
FROM 30-35 KT ARE LIKELY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT SHOULD BE EXITING THE
REGION SUNDAY MORNING, AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO APPROACH
FROM THE MIDWEST. MUCH OF THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, THOUGH
A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE MET. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN FROM W-E LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO EXIT THE
REGION MONDAY MORNING, WITH DECREASING POPS FROM NW-SE THROUGH
THE DAY.
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL BE
BETWEEN A NE CONUS TROUGH, AND A CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE. A STALLED
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION,
RESULTING IN PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED, UNTIL LATE
WEEK WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WITH
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
RAIN IS OVERSPREADING THE REGION AT THIS TIME. ALONG WITH IT,
DROPS TO IFR ARE NOTED ACROSS OH AND ARE ENCROACHING ON OUR
WESTERN PA PORTS AT THIS TIME. A STOUT DOWNSLOPE EASTERLY WIND
IS HELPING TO KEEP SOME HIGHER CIGS CLOSER TO THE RIDGES AND
THESE ARE REACHING AS FAR AS AGC AND PIT. HREF PROBABILITIES FOR
MVFR CIGS SHOW THIS POCKET DECENTLY WELL. THERE COULD BE A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF FLUCTUATION IN CIGS AT PIT, MORE AT AGC AND
THEN SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER MGW/LBE DIP INTO MVFR AND FOR
HOW LONG. FOR NOW THE CURRENT TAFS REPRESENT A BIT MORE
PESSIMISTIC FORECAST FOR CIGS BUT THOSE 4 PORTS COULD SEE LONGER
PERIODS OF HIGHER CIGS.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL MOVES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT
LARGELY FROM 02-10Z. WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF RAIN ENDS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BEGINNING FOR ZZV CLOSER TO 09Z SATURDAY.
AFTER THIS, SHOWERS BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY, WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME STRETCHES OF DRY OR VCSH ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON.
CEILING RESTRICTIONS WILL MAKE LITTLE IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS CAN BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED BETWEEN 08-12 KTS
OVERNIGHT AND COULD REMAIN GUSTY WITH FLUCTUATIONS IN GUSTS.
WINDS CAN BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 10-15 KTS TOMORROW WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 20-30 KTS. THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE OBSERVED AT
LBE WITH THE ADDED HELP OF DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS.
OUTLOOK...
WIDESPREAD CEILING RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE LATER SATURDAY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED RAIN CHANCE. SOME IMPROVEMENT
IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER IN THE
DAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ020-021-029-031.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-
057>059-068-069.
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ001>004-012.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...AK
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