458
FXUS61 KPBZ 231727
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
127 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST. THE FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES THROUGH 2 PM FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA. MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS/BRIEF TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS SE OH THIS
AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN CONTINUES THIS MORNING-FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT
2) SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, WITH A
MARGINAL RISK FOR A TORNADO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE OH
3) SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WARM FRONT ADVANCING NORTHWARD, AND A LOW LEVEL JET, WILL
MAINTAIN RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
LIKELY ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES AS IT MOVES NE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MID MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH AS A GENERAL
0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES HAVE FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATCH
AREA. AREA STREAMS AND CREEKS ARE ALSO ELEVATED, AND THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLOODING. THE LATEST HREF
INDICATES A PROBABILITY OF 50-80 PERCENT CHANCE OF 6 HR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF INCH OR GREATER, WITH PROBABILITIES OF 1
INCH IN 6 HOURS 30 PERCENT OR LESS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
STRATIFORM RAIN IN WARM ADVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ARE THEN EXPECTED TO ADVANCE ACROSS OHIO
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AREAS ACROSS OH, SOUTHEAST OF THE
SURFACE LOW, ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK THE SURFACE INVERSION AND
MIX OUT SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SURFACE
CAPE DEVELOPING, RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG AROUND THE ZZV
AREA, WITH VALUES DECREASING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST. THERE IS A
VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT, WITH LOW LCLS (LIFTING
CONDENSATION LEVELS) ALSO EXPECTED. THIS COULD RESULT IN A
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TORNADOES TO DEVELOP SHOULD CONVECTION
BECOME ORGANIZED. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED THE
AREA ACROSS EASTERN OHIO IN A MARGINAL RISK, OR LEVEL 1 OUT OF
5, FOR SEVERE STORMS, WITH THE MAIN HAZARD BRIEF TORNADOES. THE
THREAT SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF
SURFACE BASED CAPE. FURTHER TO THE EAST, A STRONG SURFACE
INVERSION SHOULD PERSIST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW/BOUNDARY.
WHILE A THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE, ANY INSTABILITY WOULD
BE ELEVATED AND LIMITED.
THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT, WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
IN ADDITION, GUSTY SE DOWNSLOPE WIND IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN SLOPE OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTS
FROM 30-35 KT ARE LIKELY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT SHOULD BE EXITING THE
REGION SUNDAY MORNING, AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO APPROACH
FROM THE MIDWEST. MUCH OF THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, THOUGH
A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE MET. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN FROM W-E LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO EXIT THE
REGION MONDAY MORNING, WITH DECREASING POPS FROM NW-SE THROUGH
THE DAY.
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL BE
BETWEEN A NE CONUS TROUGH, AND A CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE. A STALLED
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION,
RESULTING IN PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED, UNTIL LATE
WEEK WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WITH
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST /GREATER THAN 80%/ OF WIDESPREAD IFR
CIGS TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AT ALL AIRPORTS.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN AVIATION WEATHER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS FOR MOST AIRPORTS AFTER WE LOOSE THE SHORT
WINDOW OF MVFR / VFR CIGS THROUGH 23Z SATURDAY FOR PIT METRO
TERMINALS. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL ROLL THROUGH
THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. ANY SHOWER
COULD DROP VIS TO IFR, BUT GIVEN IT WILL BE BRIEF AND
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE KEPT THINGS AT THE LOW END OF MVFR AND
WILL ADJUST BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.
SOUTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT OR ABOVE THE 12 KNOT
THRESHOLD THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE HISTORICAL WINDIER
PLACES IN THIS REGIME /LBE, DUJ, AGC, PIT, AND MGW/ GUSTING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UPWARDS OF 25-30 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND COULD STAY IFR UNTIL MID MORNING ON MEMORIAL DAY. RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT BUT NOT BEFORE ANOTHER AREA
OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS
SUNDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ039-040-048>050-
057>059-068-069.
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ001>004-012.
DISCUSSION...WM/RACKLEY
AVIATION...MCMULLEN
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