145
FXUS61 KPBZ 241150
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
750 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLOOD WATCH EXPIRED AT 2AM. MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A
CROSSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT
2) SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. DRY AND SEASONABLE BY
LATE WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A
SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING. LET THE CURRENT FLOOD
WATCH EXPIRE AT 2AM, WITH RAINFALL RATES LIGHT ENOUGH TO NOT
RESULT IN FLOODING THIS MORNING.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE LATEST MODELS SHOW THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TO OUR W AND SW. THIS WAVE WILL ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD
TODAY, CROSSING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE. HREF ML CAPE SHOWS 500-750
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON, WITH AROUND 30KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR, SO A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. PWATS INCREASE TO
AROUND 1.6 IN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE THERE REMAINS A
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN OHIO, CAMS
INDICATE HEAVIER CELLS COULD BE SCATTERED WITH SUFFICIENT
MOVEMENT TO PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK,
AND MONITOR FOR THE NEED FOR ANY FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD WATCHES.
INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, THOUGH NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AS THE SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE REGION. PROBABILITIES RANGE FROM 50-60 PERCENT OF 1
INCH OF RAIN OVER 24 HRS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-80, WITH LESSES
AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO EXIT THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING, THOUGH THE LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SET
UP ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION
LATER IN THE DAY. MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY NORTH OF I-70,
WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING TO THE SOUTH IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE TROUGH.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE WEST, PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY, THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY IN
PLACE, AND BRING PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE
REGION. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN PEAKS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA
AND CROSSES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. RESULTING NW FLOW
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD DRIVE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OUT OF
THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY. NW FLOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD RETURN DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER TO THE AREA BY LATE
WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MVFR AND BRIEF POCKETS OF VFR PREVAIL THIS MORNING EXCEPT AT
FKL/DUJ, WHERE IFR OR LOWER CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING. MORE GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS SCT/ISO THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE SLOW-MOVING WARM FRONT. COVERED THIS THREAT WITH PROB30
FOR ALL TERMINALS. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED NEAR 00Z,
CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE EVENTUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WIND REMAINS LIGHT AND SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY, BECOMING
NORTHERLY WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA,
KEEPING DAILY RAIN AND RESTRICTION CHANCES MAINLY SOUTH OF PIT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...RACKLEY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page