837
FXUS61 KPBZ 250502
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
102 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TRIMMED PART OF THE FLOOD WATCH ACROSS OHIO. REMAINDER OF THE
WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FLOOD POTENTIAL INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH
2) RAIN CHANCES AND ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
3) COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
PRELIMINARY 00Z PIT SOUNDING DATA SHOWS SATURATION AND WARM RAIN
PROCESSES, RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING IN A BAND OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MOVES IN ACROSS EASTERN OH INTO WESTERN PA. THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY
LOW ACROSS THE FLOOD WATCH AREA, WHICH WAS ISSUED EARLIER.
NARROW SWATHS OF HIGHER QPF WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AFTER 2AM.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE EARLY MONDAY, THE RIDGE
AXIS THAT HAS REMAINED OVER THE NORTHEAST IN RECENT DAYS IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, ALLOWING MORE ZONAL FLOW TO DEVELOP. AS A
RESULT, PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN CONFIDED TO AREAS SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH. AT THIS TIME, THE
FLOOD THREAT ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS VERY LOW DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
BY MIDWEEK, LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST WHILE A RIDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO PROMOTE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS PROMOTES OF GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT, COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED LATE IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE THREAT FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS CONSIDERED LOW.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WIDESPREAD IFR STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. A CROSSING
SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO PORTS MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF PIT, BEFORE THE WAVE EXITS THIS MORNING.
EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING, AS
MIXING AND DRY ADVECTION BEGIN AFTER SUNRISE. A RETURN TO VFR
STRATOCU IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS THE MIXING AND DRY
ADVECTION LIFT CIG HEIGHTS. THE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH, THOUGH HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS IS EXPECTED TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.
OUTLOOK...
THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL KEEP PERIODIC RAIN AND RESTRICTION
CHANCES MAINLY SOUTH OF A LBE-ZZV LINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR
RETURNS AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM/HEFFERAN
AVIATION...WM
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