325
FXUS61 KPBZ 251135
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
735 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN CHANCES AND ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
2) COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING, THE RIDGE
AXIS THAT HAS REMAINED OVER THE NORTHEAST IN RECENT DAYS IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, ALLOWING MORE ZONAL FLOW TO DEVELOP. AS A
RESULT, PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN CONFIDED TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-70. GIVEN THE RAINFALL OVER
THIS AREA FROM THE NIGHT BEFORE, THE AREA IS PRIMED FOR
ADDITIONAL FLOOD IMPACTS SHOULD ONE MATERIALIZE. TRENDS AND
PROBABILITIES ALLOW FOR AN ADDITIONAL 0.25" THROUGH THE DAY BUT
THIS WILL LIKELY NOT BE CONCERNING FOR ADDITIONAL FLOOD
CONCERNS. HAVE PUT THIS AREA IN AN HWO FOR THE POTENTIAL BUT
MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE FREE FROM IMPACTS.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
EACH DAY RELYING ON THE DAYTIME HEATING TO INVIGORATE ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BY MIDWEEK, LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST WHILE A RIDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO PROMOTE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS PROMOTES OF GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT, COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED LATE IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE THREAT FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS CONSIDERED LOW.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
IFR AND LIFR IN LOW FOG AND STRATUS ARE STILL RATHER PREVALENT
HERE THIS MORNING, WITH A COUPLE OF PORTS BREAKING TO VFR. FOG,
STRATUS AND MIST ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO TAPER OVER THE COMING
HOURS WITH A GENERAL INCREASE TO MVFR LATE THIS MORNING WITH
MIXING AND DRY ADVECTION. A RETURN TO VFR STRATOCU IS EXPECTED
BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH, THOUGH HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS IS EXPECTED TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.
THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY BUT COULD
BRING ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF SHOWERS NEAR AND SOUTH OF MGW. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTHERLY TODAY AND GENERALLY BELOW 10KTS.
OUTLOOK...
THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL KEEP PERIODIC RAIN AND RESTRICTION
CHANCES MAINLY SOUTH OF A LBE-ZZV LINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR
RETURNS AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-020-022.
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ001>004-
012.
DISCUSSION...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...WM/AK
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