218
FXUS61 KPBZ 251654
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1254 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN CHANCES AND ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
2) COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT, DRIER CONDITIONS HAVE
DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY BREAK UP WITH
DIURNAL MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT. SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH, THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED AND ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES,
HOWEVER, REMAIN VERY LOW.
FOR TUESDAY, SIMILAR WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.
BY LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
TROUGH TO OUR NORTH COMBINED WITH THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA COULD LEAD TO SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED FLOODING FORM
TRAINING CONVECTION. IF CONFIDENCE IN HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
CONTINUES TO INCREASE, A LOCALIZED FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.
AT THE MOMENT, HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DEPICTS A 30-40% CHANCE
OF AN AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL (+1 INCH IN 6 HOURS) TO OCCUR.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON LOCATION DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITION. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL
DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BY MIDWEEK, LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST WHILE A RIDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO PROMOTE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST UNDER A TROUGH. AS A RESULT, COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED LATE IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE THREAT FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS CONSIDERED
LOW THURSDAY INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
IFR AND LIFR IN LOW FOG AND STRATUS ARE STILL RATHER PREVALENT
HERE THIS MORNING, WITH A COUPLE OF PORTS BREAKING TO VFR. FOG,
STRATUS AND MIST ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO TAPER OVER THE COMING
HOURS WITH A GENERAL INCREASE TO MVFR LATE THIS MORNING WITH
MIXING AND DRY ADVECTION. A RETURN TO VFR STRATOCU IS EXPECTED
BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH, THOUGH HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS IS EXPECTED TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.
THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY BUT COULD
BRING ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF SHOWERS NEAR AND SOUTH OF MGW. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTHERLY TODAY AND GENERALLY BELOW 10KTS.
OUTLOOK...
THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL KEEP PERIODIC RAIN AND RESTRICTION
CHANCES MAINLY SOUTH OF A LBE-ZZV LINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR
RETURNS AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...WM/AK
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