773
FXUS61 KPBZ 081534
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1134 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LATEST FORECAST. UPDATED
AVIATION SECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOW-PROBABILITY THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN OH THIS EVENING
2) INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING MID-WEEK
3) HOT TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR-RECORD OVERNIGHT WARMTH THIS WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A CROSSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OHIO. WHILE
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LOW, A COMBINATION OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY (1500-2000 J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE), WEAK SHEAR,
AND A SIGNIFICANT 500HPA DRY LAYER WILL SUPPORT DOWNBURSTS AND
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ELSEWHERE, WARM MID-LEVELS
WILL SHOULD INHIBIT UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES BEGIN ON
TUESDAY WITH A SERIES OF CROSSING SHORTWAVES. THE COMBINATION
OF A MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS, ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, AND
WEAK RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
ANY STRONG STORMS COULD PRODUCE A RANGE OF HAZARDS, INCLUDING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, TORNADOES, AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING.
BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHEN
ML GUIDANCE INDICATES A 30-45% PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE TODAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO FALL SHORT OF THE DAILY RECORD HIGHS
IN THE MID/UPPER 90S THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY WITH DAILY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. HOWEVER, OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S
LATE WEEK WILL BE NEAR RECORD WARM MINIMUMS. WARM OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ARE PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS DURING PROLONGED PERIODS
OF HEAT. LARGE PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE A 70%+ CHANCE OF MAJOR
HEAT RISK ON THURSDAY, WITH HIGH PROBABILITIES OF MODERATE HEAT
RISK OTHER DAYS THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS LOW PROBABILITY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN OHIO (ZZV). THERE COULD BE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH RESTRICTIONS THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN TOWARD SUNRISE
TUESDAY IN THAT AREA. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 5-10KTS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME
SCATTERED LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
OUTLOOK...
DAILY THUNDERSTORM AND RESTRICTION CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A SERIES OF CROSSING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS.
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH A CROSSING COLD
FRONT.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN/RACKLEY
AVIATION...CRAVEN/RACKLEY
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