485
FXUS61 KPBZ 090530
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
130 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING MID-WEEK
STARTING IN OHIO WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS ON TUESDAY.
2) HOT TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR-RECORD OVERNIGHT WARMTH THIS WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... DAILY SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES BEGIN TODAY WITH A SERIES OF CROSSING SHORTWAVES. THE
COMBINATION OF A MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS, ABOVE- AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES, AND WEAK RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. ANY STRONG STORMS COULD PRODUCE A RANGE OF HAZARDS,
INCLUDING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, TORNADOES, AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING.
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IS INCREASING IN AREA WITHIN A
COUNTY OR SO OF ZANESVILLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. RICH POOL
OF 2.0" TO 2.2" PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE JUST UPSTREAM OF
THE AREA FROM IL INTO KY, AND VALUES OF 1.8-2.0" ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO AT LEAST THE OHIO PORTION OF FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH 68-72F TDS. THESE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WOULD BE NEAR RECORD HIGH VALUES. ALONG WITH 20-25
KNOT SW FLOW IN 850-700 MB LAYER, MOISTURE TRANSPORT VALUES WILL
BE DECENT. CORFIDI VECTORS WILL BE AROUND 5 KNOTS, INDICATING
STRONG POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND BACKBUILDING ECHOES.
HREF SHOWS 30-60% CHANCE OF 2" OF RAINFALL IN 24 HOURS IN FAR
WESTERN 5 COUNTIES IN OHIO, WITH 20-30% CHANCE OF LOCALLY 4"+.
SITUATIONS LIKE THESE GENERAL FEATURE VERY SMALL AREAS THAT GET
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, AND ARE HISTORICALLY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST
BOTH SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY. NOT QUITE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH YET BUT WILL INCREASE MESSAGING OF LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHEN
ML GUIDANCE INDICATES A 30-45% PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE TODAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO FALL SHORT OF THE DAILY RECORD HIGHS
IN THE MID/UPPER 90S THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY WITH DAILY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. HOWEVER, OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S
LATE WEEK WILL BE NEAR RECORD WARM MINIMUMS. WARM OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ARE PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS DURING PROLONGED PERIODS
OF HEAT. LARGE PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE A 70%+ CHANCE OF MAJOR
HEAT RISK ON THURSDAY, WITH HIGH PROBABILITIES OF MODERATE HEAT
RISK OTHER DAYS THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY OUTSIDE OF LOCAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM-RELATED RESTRICTIONS. AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH A STRONG INFLUX OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
LOWER CLOUD DECKS EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW PROBABILITY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES OVER EASTERN OHIO (ZZV).
DAYTIME HEATING WITH INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 18Z. HEAVY RAIN
MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES. THUNDER
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY AROUND 03Z WEDNESDAY, BUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL
LOWER INTO IFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
A WARM, MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH INTERMITTENT PASSING OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES FAVOR DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH ANY STORM WHILE EXCESSIVE
RAIN COULD CREATE CIG/VIS IMPACTS EVEN DURING NON-RAIN PERIODS,
LIKELY AROUND THE DAWN HOURS.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CRAVEN/RACKLEY
AVIATION...RACKLEY
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