749
FXUS61 KPBZ 100625
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
225 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BUT LARGE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN TIMING/COVERAGE/THREATS
2) LOW PROBABILITY FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS EXISTS THROUGH FRIDAY
DUE TO WARM, MOIST ENVIRONMENT
3) ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WITH POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGH
MINIMUMS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY, PENDING STORM OUTCOMES
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAY FEATURE SMALL, EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE RIDGE TOP AXIS, THE OVERALL PATTERN THIS
WEEK PUTS THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY IN A WARM, MOIST
ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH FRIDAY. BETTER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVEMENT WITH SURFACE
FRONTAL PUSH FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING HELPS END THIS
SETUP TO (AT LEAST BRIEFLY) OFFER QUIETER AND MORE SEASONABLE
WEATHER.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STORM
ENVIRONMENTS COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND (MOST LIKELY)
AND LARGE HAIL (WITH A LIMITED NOD TO TORNADIC POTENTIAL) AS
MEAN SBCAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 2000 J/KG, 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND
20KTS, AND DCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER, HIGH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF WEAK FORCING/LIFTING CREATING
LARGE SPREADS IN INITIATION LOCATIONS AND IMPACTS OF CONVECTION
(BOTH UPSTREAM AND LOCALLY) DURING THE PRIOR 12-24 HOURS
ALTERING THE ANTICIPATED ENVIRONMENT. A QUICK PERUSAL ACROSS
VARIOUS CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING DETERMINISTIC MODEL REFLECTIVITY
OUTPUT HIGHLIGHT THE VAST SCOPE OF STORM OUTCOMES, WITH SOME
SHOWING LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION (DUE TO SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN WAYS)
FOR WEDNESDAY WHILE OTHERS DEVELOP STRONG EVENING CLUSTERS IN
EASTERN OH OR A POTENTIAL MCS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
THURSDAY. THIS SHOWS THAT EVEN STORM MODE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY,
TOGGLING BETWEEN MCS-LIKE STORM CLUSTERS VERSUS DISCRETE CELLS
CREATING MICROBURSTS AND/OR LARGE HAIL. BEST PRACTICE AT THIS
TIME WILL BE A CONTINUE MONITORING OF WEATHER INFORMATION TO
LEARN OF THE LATEST TRENDS AND NOT BE TOO SET ON PRIOR FORECASTS
WITH SUCH A FLUID SITUATION.
FOR FRIDAY, A MORE-DEFINED SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY
CREATES GREATER CERTAINTY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AS
IT CROSSES THE REGION BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN ITS PASSAGE
AMONGST MODELS LENDS TO HIGHER VARIABILITY IN THE SEVERE
ENVIRONMENT. THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME AT THIS TIME IS A QLCS-LIKE
FEATURE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSING DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY, WITH LATER ARRIVAL ALLOWING FOR STRONGER
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TO CREATE LARGER HAZARDS THREAT
(FAVORING DAMAGING WIND) WHILE EARLIER ARRIVAL LIMITS AREA OF
CONCERN TO EASTERN LOCALES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THIS WEEK HELP TO CREATE
A LIMIT OF FLASH FLOOD CONCERN EVEN AS AREA PWATS RISE AND HOLD
NEAR THE DAILY MAX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK.
ADDITIONALLY, THE LACK OF STRONG DESTABILIZATION TODAY, DESPITE
LOW CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVEMENT
AND/OR BACK BUILDING, SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF RAINFALL
RATES ENOUGH SUCH THAT FLASH FLOODING IS UNLIKELY AND ANY
OCCURRENCE IS VERY ISOLATED AND WITHIN/NEAR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
FLASH FLOOD RISKS ARE UNLIKELY TO EVOLVE MUCH THROUGH FRIDAY
(MEANING REMAINING LOW BUT NON-ZERO) AS GREATER INSTABILITY
DEVELOPMENT (RESULTING IN GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR HIGH RAINFALL
RATES) THAT PROMOTES HIGHER FLOOD RISKS ARE OFFSET BY EITHER
GREATER FORWARD MOTION/PROPAGATION (FRIDAY) AND/OR LOW STORM
COVERAGE POTENTIAL (WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY). BUT GIVEN PWAT
REMAINING HIGH WITHIN THE WARM, UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT, IT REMAINS
PRUDENT TO BE AWARE OF THE NON-ZERO FLOODING RISK IF ANY STORM
GENERATES RAINFALL RATES EXCEED 2"/HR AND SITS (OR TRAINS OVER)
THE SAME LOCATION FOR A LONG-ENOUGH DURATION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE TODAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO FALL SHORT OF THE
DAILY RECORD HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY
WITH DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. HOWEVER, OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S LATE WEEK WILL BE NEAR RECORD WARM
MINIMUMS. WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS
DURING PROLONGED PERIODS OF HEAT. LARGE PORTIONS OF THE AREA
HAVE A 70%+ CHANCE OF MAJOR HEAT RISK ON THURSDAY, WITH HIGH
PROBABILITIES OF MODERATE HEAT RISK OTHER DAYS THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAINLY IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING AS A WARM
AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
MVFR AND BACK TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING.
A CROSSING SHORTWAVE WILL RETURNS SHOWERS AND THE OCCASIONAL
RUMBLE OF THUNDER FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING, NEARING ZZV
BY AROUND 09Z AND PIT BY AROUND 11Z. KEPT VISIBILITY FOR THESE
AT 5-6 MILES IN MOST CASES, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED,
BRIEF MORE RESTRICTIVE SHOWER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
FIRE IN THE HUMID AIR MASS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION IS LOW. INCLUDED
PROB30 GROUPS AT ALL SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN ALLOW CEILINGS TO LOWER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
A WARM, MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH INTERMITTENT PASSING OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES FAVOR DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH ANY STORM WHILE EXCESSIVE
RAIN COULD CREATE CIG/VIS IMPACTS EVEN DURING NON-RAIN PERIODS,
LIKELY NEAR DAWN HOURS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY GIVEN THE PATTERN. CHANCES
FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE EACH DAY WITH
POST-FRONTAL REPRIEVE ON SATURDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RACKLEY/FRAZIER
AVIATION...RACKLEY
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