396
FXUS61 KPBZ 102325
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
725 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
IMPROVED TIMING AND AREAL FOCUS FOR STORMS AND SEVERE CHANCES
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, OTHERWISE PRIOR MESSAGING AND ITS
DEGREES OF UNCERTAINTY REMAIN. ALSO ADDED AVIATION DISCUSSION
FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
BUT LARGE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN TIMING/COVERAGE/THREATS
2) LOW PROBABILITY FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS EXISTS THROUGH FRIDAY
DUE TO WARM, MOIST ENVIRONMENT
3) ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WITH POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGH
MINIMUMS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY, PENDING STORM OUTCOMES
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN WITHIN A WARM, HUMID ENVIRONMENT THROUGH
PORTIONS OF FRIDAY CONDUCIVE TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEFORE A
MORE WELL-DEFINED FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH CROSS BY FRIDAY EVENING
THAT PROVIDE AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF MORE SEASONABLE AND DRY
WEATHER.
FOR TODAY, LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A CLEAR EXITING OF A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AXIS OF ENHANCED PWATS AS OF 17Z
WHILE SATELLITE-NOTED DRY AIR ARRIVES IN ITS WAKE AMID SHORTWAVE
RIDGING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER AT THE MOMENT THAT THESE FEATURES,
DRY MID-LEVEL AIR AND RIDGE SUBSIDENCE, WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER, HI-
RES MODEL GUIDANCE NOTES A CORRIDOR OF SURFACE TEMP/DEWPOINT
CONVERGENCE NEAR CLE THAT IS THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 6PM-10PM, WITH THESE STORMS
MOVING SOUTHEAST (BEFORE WEAKENING) DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.
THE HIGHLIGHTED MARGINAL RISK BY SPC REMAINS CONDITIONAL ON
THESE OR ANY OTHER THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT, WHICH
REMAINS ON THE LOWER END OF PROBABILITIES; IF THEY DO FORM
WITHIN THE PROPER EVENING WINDOW, THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND AND
HEAVY RAIN RISES DUE TO SBCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG,
DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG, AND WEAKER SHEAR.
THURSDAY'S OUTLOOK SHOWS SIMILAR TO HIGHER SEVERE POTENTIAL DUE
TO MAINTENANCE OF HIGH SBCAPE/DCAPE VALUES BUT CONFIDENCE IS
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER IN STORM DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE/TIMING. LIKE
TODAY, THESE FACETS WILL BE PREDICATED ON STORM EVOLUTION
OVERNIGHT PLUS ANY INFLUENCES FROM WESTERN GREAT LAKE ACTIVITY
THAT MAY OR MAY NOT PROVIDE SOURCES OF LIFT/CONVERGENCE TO HELP
THE INITIATION PROCESS.
FRIDAY FEATURES A MORE WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT OFFERS A LIFTING MECHANISM, BUT
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS SPREAD ON TIMING DIFFERENCES THAT COULD
RESULT IN MORE BULLISH PRECIPITATION/SEVERE CHANCES (AFTERNOON
PASSAGE) OR MORE BEARISH PRECIPITATION/SEVERE CHANCES (OVERNIGHT
TO MID MORNING FRIDAY PASSAGE). EARLY HINTS FROM THE MOST RECENT
HI-RES MODELING SEEM TO LEAN TOWARD THE LATTER IDEAL, MEANING
OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE RISKS TREND
LOWER WHILE FAVORING AREAS EAST OF PITTSBURGH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DESPITE FLUCTUATIONS IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT, AREA PWAT
VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE 90TH AND HIGHER PERCENTILE RANGES
THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN WARM. THESE FACTORS
ALONE CREATE NON-ZERO FLASH FLOOD RISKS AS THEY FAVOR WARM-RAIN
PROCESSES THAT RESULT IN HIGHER AND MORE EFFICIENT RAINFALL
RATES. ADD IN GENERALLY WEAKER MID-LEVEL FLOW (THOUGH STORM
MOTION QUICKENS FRIDAY), THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING EXISTS EACH
DAY.
HOWEVER, FAIRLY DRY SURFACES PLUS LOW CONFIDENCE IN STORM
COVERAGE/OCCURRENCE DAMPENS THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH FLOODING
ACTUALLY DEVELOPING FOR ANY OF THESE PERIODS. THE MOST LIKELY
OUTCOME IS MINIMAL FLOODING OCCURRENCES, WITH ISSUES ONLY
DEVELOPING IN POOR-DRAINAGE LOCATIONS THAT SEE PROLONGED 1-2"/HR
RATES OR AREAS THAT HAPPEN TO SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THESE
EFFICIENT RAINS IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE COMBINATION OF AREA DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WHILE SEEING ENOUGH PERIODS OF SUNSHINE MEANS
INCREASED HEAT CONCERNS TODAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH IMPACTS
MORE ACUTELY IMPACTING HEAT-SENSITIVE POPULATIONS WITHIN URBAN
ENVIRONMENTS. THOUGH A BRIEF HOUR OF HEAT INDICES NEAR TO
MATCHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT ARE
UNLIKELY TO BE PROLONGED ENOUGH FOR HEADLINE ISSUANCE. EVEN
STILL THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT OVERNIGHT COOLING CAN ACT TO
EXASPERATE ANY HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS UNTIL A COOLER AIRMASS
ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THE BIGGEST CAVEAT TO THIS HEAT POTENTIAL IS THAT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY COULD ACT TO LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING (OR FURTHER LIMIT
OVERNIGHT COOLING) IF IT RESULTS IN RAIN OVER A GIVEN LOCATION
AND/OR MAINTAINS THICKER CLOUD COVER THAN ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FORECAST REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE INTO TONIGHT AS ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE FROM THE WEST.
COVERAGE APPEARS TO REMAIN LOW, WITH CHANCE OF THUNDER FAVORED
FOR NORTHERN PORTS (DUJ/FKL, WITH CHANCES DECREASING AS YOU HEAD
SOUTH). GIVEN THE WIDELY SCATTERED NATURE OF CONVECTION, THE
CHANCE OF IMPACTS AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IS LOW AND WAS DENOTED
WITH A PROB30 FOR NOW.
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE, A SHOWER OR STORM COULD NOT BE RULED OUT
IN THE MORNING, BUT GENERALLY REMAINS LESS THAN 20% LIKELY.
SINCE THE LAST UPDATE, CIG RESTRICTION HAVE DECREASED
OVERNIGHT, WITH A >75% CHANCE OF VFR SAVE DUJ WHERE BORDERLINE
MVFR/IFR IS POSSIBLE. NONETHELESS, PORTS THAT DO SEE RAIN
OVERNIGHT MAY HAVE A HEIGHTENED CHANCE OF FOG OR LOW CLOUDS AT
DAYBREAK. SOME RESTRICTIONS IN HAZE ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT
DAYBREAK WITH HIGH HUMIDITY, BUT NOT NOTED FOR NOW.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY POINT TOMORROW, BUT
TIMING NOTED IN THE TAFS FOR NOW TRACKS PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY MORE
LIKELY WINDOW MODELED BY THE NAM/FV3. OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILS
WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BRING MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
IN SHOWERS, LOW CLOUDS, AND STORMS. SATURDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY
QUIET WITH ANOTHER POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRAZIER
AVIATION...MILCAREK
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