885
FXUS61 KPBZ 120047
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
847 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS ENDED FOR TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS FRIDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IN
DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE IS DECREASING
2) LOW PROBABILITY FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS EXISTS FRIDAY DUE TO
WARM, MOIST ENVIRONMENT
3) ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WITH POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGH
MINIMUMS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY, PENDING STORM OUTCOMES
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE MID-LEVEL WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON'S SEVERE WEATHER, WE'RE ONLY LEFT WITH SOME RESIDUAL
CIRRUS BLOWOFF AND OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS. AN MCS OFF TO OUR
WEST IS EXPECTED TO DECAY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
INTRUSION ON A MORE STABLE AIRMASS, THOUGH THERE'S SOME QUESTION
AS TO THE DEGREE OF LINGERING SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN
THE LATTER HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LOCALLY. SOME CAMS,
NAMELY THE HRRR AND FV3, SUGGEST REDEVELOPMENT EAST OF
PITTSBURGH WHERE SUFFICIENT MUCAPE COULD SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS POSING A VERY LOW SEVERE THREAT. STILL NOT CONFIDENT
ON HOW THAT WILL EVOLVE WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRAVERSING
OVERHEAD, BUT LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE BEST CAPTURING THE
CURRENT ENVIRONMENT AMONG THE REST OF THE CAMS, SO THIS SOLUTION
IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE AND WILL REQUIRE CONTINUED MONITORING
INTO LATE THIS EVENING.
THE WARM, HUMID ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY, KEEPING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT AND
CROSSING UPPER TROUGH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE WILL FOLLOW.
FRIDAY FEATURES A MORE WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT OFFERS A LIFTING MECHANISM. THIS COULD RESULT
IN MORE BULLISH PRECIPITATION/SEVERE CHANCES WITH THE AFTERNOON
PASSAGE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DESPITE FLUCTUATIONS IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT, AREA PWAT
VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE 90TH AND HIGHER PERCENTILE RANGES
THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN WARM. THESE FACTORS
ALONE CREATE NON-ZERO FLASH FLOOD RISKS AS THEY FAVOR WARM-RAIN
PROCESSES THAT RESULT IN HIGHER AND MORE EFFICIENT RAINFALL
RATES. ADD IN GENERALLY WEAKER MID-LEVEL FLOW (THOUGH STORM
MOTION QUICKENS FRIDAY), THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING EXISTS EACH
DAY.
HOWEVER, FAIRLY DRY SURFACES DAMPENS THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH
FLOODING ACTUALLY DEVELOPING FOR ANY OF THESE PERIODS. THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME IS MINIMAL FLOODING OCCURRENCES, WITH ISSUES ONLY
DEVELOPING IN POOR-DRAINAGE LOCATIONS THAT SEE PROLONGED
1-2"/HR RATES OR AREAS THAT HAPPEN TO SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
THESE EFFICIENT RAINS IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE COMBINATION OF AREA DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE 60S
OVERNIGHT/70S DURING THE DAY WHILE SEEING ENOUGH PERIODS OF
SUNSHINE MEANS INCREASED HEAT CONCERNS TODAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH IMPACTS MORE ACUTELY IMPACTING HEAT-SENSITIVE
POPULATIONS WITHIN URBAN ENVIRONMENTS. A BRIEF HOUR OF HEAT
INDICES NEAR 100F CAN'T BE RULED OUT, HOWEVER, THIS IS UNLIKELY
TO BE PROLONGED ENOUGH FOR HEADLINE ISSUANCE. EVEN STILL THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT OVERNIGHT COOLING CAN ACT TO EXASPERATE ANY
HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS UNTIL A COOLER AIRMASS ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THE BIGGEST CAVEAT TO THIS HEAT POTENTIAL IS THAT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY COULD ACT TO LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING (OR FURTHER LIMIT
OVERNIGHT COOLING) IF IT RESULTS IN RAIN OVER A GIVEN LOCATION
AND/OR MAINTAINS THICKER CLOUD COVER THAN ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
STORMS ARE LIKELY OVER FOR THE NIGHT WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE. LIKEWISE, VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNDER A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY WITH PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED LOW DECK ENCROACHING
LATE. SINCE THE LAST UPDATE, THE CONFIDENCE IN MORNING STORMS
HAS GONE DOWN, AS CONFIDENCE IN A MIDWEST MCS DECAYING BEFORE
GETTING TO OUR AREA INCREASES. BECAUSE OF A LACK OF THE
AFFILIATED CLOUD COVER AND THE ABUNDANCE OF AREA-WIDE RAIN
TODAY, MVFR FOG WAS NOTED AT MOST PORTS FOR DAYBREAK DESPITE
MODELS NOT HINTING AT ANY PRESENCE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL SOME
SITES COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR/LIFR SHOULD WINDS CALM.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT DUJ, BUT POSSIBLE FOR ALL PORTS.
WITH MIXING INTO THE DAY TOMORROW A MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO AN
INITIAL MVFR BROKEN DECK BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH,
SCATTERING DECKS AND PERHAPS ALLOWING FOR A LOW CHANCE OF A
STORM FOR WESTERN PA / NORTH WV PORTS.
OUTLOOK...
DRY ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
FAVORS VFR FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY. THE NEXT PRECIPITATION
CHANCE ARRIVES WITH SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT SUNDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM/RACKLEY/FRAZIER/MLB/LUPO
AVIATION...MILCAREK
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