338
FXUS61 KPBZ 121714
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
114 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT HAS SHRUNK A BIT IN BOTH AREA AND CONFIDENCE
LEVEL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SHORT WINDOW FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAINS THIS
AFTERNOON, GENERALLY EAST OF LATROBE AND MORGANTOWN
2) QUIET WEATHER SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY ANOTHER
CHANCE AT STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING CENTRAL OHIO. THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD GENERALLY REACH THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 18Z AND PROGRESS
EASTWARD TO THE LAURELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, DRIVEN BY A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO.
A MIX OF STRATIFORM RAIN AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS PROGRESSING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER. GIVEN
THE PROGRESS OF THIS ACTIVITY, DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND WEST OF AN INDIANA/LATROBE/NEW MARTINSVILLE LINE IS
GOING TO BE HARD TO COME BY. EARLIER MIXING HAS ALSO LOWERED
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THIS AREA. PORTIONS OF THE LAURELS/NORTHERN
WV RIDGES STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF ACHIEVING SUFFICIENT CAPE
(60 PERCENT OR GREATER CHANCE OF 1000+ J/KG PER 12Z HREF) TO
STAND UP SOME DECENT UPDRAFTS. 25-30 KNOTS OF 0-3M SHEAR MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME MODEST STORM ORGANIZATION, AND CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW INSTANCES OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE GUSTS DRIVEN
BY OUTFLOW FROM STORM CLUSTERS. VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND WITH TIME
RULES OUT ANY LOW-LEVEL ROTATION CONCERNS, AND ALONG WITH THE
MODEST SHEAR, POOR MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT HAIL
POTENTIAL. THE MAIN WINDOW FOR ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEAR TO BE
FROM 18Z TO 22Z, ENDING AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. A
DRIER AIR MASS AND CLEARING SKY IS THEN FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CROSSING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN QUIET WEATHER ON SATURDAY,
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY,
BEHIND WHICH A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND
AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL WAVE MIGHT BE FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE
STORM RISK, THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF ISENTROPIC-FUELED RAIN
PRECEDING THE BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY MORNING, WHICH COULD HINDER ANY
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SCENARIOS (LIKE THE
12Z NAM NEST FOR EXAMPLE) WHERE LESS MORNING CLOUDS/RAIN ALLOWS
FOR GREATER DESTABILIZATION AND A CHANCE FOR MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION. THE NBM 25TH/75TH PERCENTILE SBCAPE RANGE AT
PITTSBURGH AT 18Z SUNDAY RANGES FROM ABOUT 375 J/KG TO CLOSE TO
1100 J/KG, ILLUSTRATING THE UNCERTAINTY. ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS SHOULD HAVE ABOUT 35-40KM OF DEEP SHEAR TO WORK WITH, SO
ORGANIZATION IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER-BUOYANCY
SCENARIOS. SPC CURRENTLY MAINTAINS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5)
SEVERE RISK FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST PA/NORTHERN WV ON SUNDAY,
WHICH IS APPROPRIATE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL CREATE
A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH A CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE/BRIEF RAIN
SHOWER BEARING MINIMAL TERMINAL IMPACTS. GREATER HEATING NEAR
MGW MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF BUT MORE ROBUST SHOWER, BUT DWINDLING
INSTABILITY/LIFT OF THESE BOUNDARIES SUGGEST TOO LOW OF A
PROBABILITY FOR A LIGHTNING MENTION IN ITS TAF.
DRY ADVECTION AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL ERODE CLOUD COVER THROUGH
TONIGHT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE/FRONT, THOUGH CLEARING TIMING COULD
VAR SLIGHTLY FROM TAF HIGHLIGHTS. VFR TRENDING TOWARD A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. ONE EXCEPTION IS IF
SURFACE DRY ADVECTION ARRIVES TOO LATE AT MGW WHILE SKIES CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED FOG FORMATION NEAR
DAWN.
OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH RESTRICTIONS WITH ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL
COMBINATION SUNDAY, THOUGH FAVORED PERIODS OF ACTIVITY REMAIN
VARIABLE AMONG AVAILABLE WEATHER MODELS.
HIGH PRESSURE PORTENDS TO DRY VFR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO START
THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CL
AVIATION...FRAZIER
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