352
FXUS61 KPBZ 140740
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
340 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PASSING COLD FRONT THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES ALONG A SQUALL LINE; SPC ADDED
A 2% TORNADO RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION
KEY MESSAGES
1) STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
ADVANCING COLD FRONT
2) QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY;
MONITORING POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER ON THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. WARM, MOIST ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY PRIME THE ENVIRONMENT ENOUGH
FOR FAVORABLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY BETWEEN 2PM AND 8PM.
THE PRIMARY THREAT TODAY WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, SUPPORTED BY 40-50KTS OF EFFECTIVE
SHEAR. AS A RESULT, SCATTERED TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES ARE
POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALSO INTRODUCED A 2% TORNADO
RISK. A NUMBER OF MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
STRETCHING OF UPDRAFTS WITH LOWER CLOUD BASES AND SHALLOW
INSTABILITY (3CAPE BETWEEN 100J/KG TO 150J/KG) FOR TORNADIC
DEVELOPMENT.
SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE, BUT THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT HAIL DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN ELEVATED FREEZING LEVEL AND A DEEP MOIST
LAYER, BOTH OF WHICH TEND TO LIMIT HAIL GROWTH. CLIMATOLOGICALLY,
UPDRAFTS WOULD LIKELY NEED TO EXCEED 30,000FT TO SUPPORT HAIL
PRODUCTION OF A QUARTER OR BIGGER.
BETWEEN 9PM AND 11PM, THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT SOUTHEAST
AND THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY DECREASES. A FEW
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
DAWN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, EXPECT DRY AND
BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.
LINGERING CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
LIKELY KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER-60S/LOW-70S ON
MONDAY, 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
BY THURSDAY, A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD BRING RISING 500MB HEIGHTS
AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS BACK TO THE REGION. ALONG WITH THIS ARE
INDICATIONS OF ENHANCED FLOW, WITH 45-50 KNOTS AT 700MB AND
85-95 KNOTS AT 500MB ON ENSEMBLE PROGS. THIS COMBINATION
SUGGESTS AN INCREASING RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON THIS DAY,
ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENTIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM GREAT
LAKES LOW PRESSURE. MACHINE-LEARNING GUIDANCE FROM NCAR AND CSU
AGREE WITH THIS ASSESSMENT, WITH PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER INCREASING OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS TO 30% TO 60%. SPC
ALSO HAS ALREADY HIGHLIGHTED THURSDAY FOR THE RISK AS WELL.
GIVEN THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION THAT COULD BE REALIZED,
THIS IS A POTENTIALLY VOLATILE SITUATION THAT COULD PRESENT THE
RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, MULTIPLE EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES MAY PROMOTE REPEATED ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION, RAISING
CONCERNS FOR TRAINING STORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. AT THIS TIME,
THE GREATEST FLOOD RISK APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO FOCUS OVER AREAS JUST
WEST OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, WPC HAS INTRODUCED A "SLIGHT"
RISK FOR FLOODING WITH THIS LATEST FORECAST UPDATE IN CENTRAL
OHIO.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ALL TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING DESPITE PASSING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WITH AN
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. CIGS WILL LOWER AFTER 12Z BUT WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 4-5KFT.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT BETWEEN 19Z TO 23Z. AT MINIMUM, USERS
CAN EXPECT HEAVY RAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 20KTS TO LOCALLY
30-40KTS IN ANY STORM ALONG WITH DIPS TO MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS.
PENDING ON THE DEGREE OF HEATING PRIOR TO THE LINE PASSAGE,
WHICH IS DEPENDENT ON THE COVERAGE OF MORNING SHOWERS, STORMS
COULD SEE AN ENHANCEMENT OF BOTH LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND
POTENTIAL.
MOST LIKELY TIMING FROM SEVERE STORMS: ~21Z FOR ZZV AND FKL,
~22Z FOR PIT AND SURROUNDING TERMINALS, AND ~23Z FOR LBE AND
MGW. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE, MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN PATCHY MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VIS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, MOSTLY AFTER 02Z, LINGERING MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITH COLD ADVECTION AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
MONDAY. QUIET, DRY, AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...HEFFERAN
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