516
FXUS61 KPBZ 150007
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
807 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM FOR SOUTHERN
PA AND NORTHERN WV. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS FOR THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY;
MONITORING POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER ON THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER EARLY MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE DAWN. IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT,
EXPECT DRY AND BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY. LINGERING CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST
WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER-60S/LOW-70S ON
MONDAY, 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
BY THURSDAY, A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD BRING RISING 500MB HEIGHTS
AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS BACK TO THE REGION. ALONG WITH THIS ARE
INDICATIONS OF ENHANCED FLOW, WITH 45-50 KNOTS AT 700MB AND
85-95 KNOTS AT 500MB ON ENSEMBLE PROGS. THIS COMBINATION
SUGGESTS AN INCREASING RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON THIS DAY,
ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENTIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM GREAT
LAKES LOW PRESSURE. MACHINE-LEARNING GUIDANCE FROM NCAR AND CSU
AGREE WITH THIS ASSESSMENT, WITH PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER INCREASING OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS TO 30% TO 60%. SPC
ALSO HAS ALREADY HIGHLIGHTED THURSDAY FOR THE RISK AS WELL.
GIVEN THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION THAT COULD BE REALIZED,
THIS IS A POTENTIALLY VOLATILE SITUATION THAT COULD PRESENT THE
RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, MULTIPLE EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES MAY PROMOTE REPEATED ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION, RAISING
CONCERNS FOR TRAINING STORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. AT THIS TIME,
THE GREATEST FLOOD RISK APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO FOCUS OVER AREAS JUST
WEST OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, WPC HAS INTRODUCED A "SLIGHT"
RISK FOR FLOODING WITH THIS LATEST FORECAST UPDATE IN CENTRAL
OHIO.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST. COLD
ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE WILL QUICKLY END PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT CURRENTLY FAVORS A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
MVFR TO PERIODICALLY IFR STRATOCU DECK THAT DISSIPATES/LIFTS
AFTER DAWN MONDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOWER DECKS AND FOG IF
THERE IS SCATTERING OF THE STRATOCU FIELD ALLOW FOR BRIEF
PERIODS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING NEEDED TO FOSTER THESE LOWER
RESTRICTIONS. HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE RETURN VFR CONDITIONS
MONDAY AS THE CU FIELD TRANSITIONS FROM BROKEN TO FEW BY EARLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
LITTLE CHANGE IN IMPACTS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY BUT THE APPROACH
OF AN ABNORMALLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MID-WEEK WILL
CREATE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CL
AVIATION...FRAZIER/LUPO
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