522
FXUS61 KPBZ 041605
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1205 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGE TO THE IMPACTS JUST UPDATED TEXT IN THE KEY MESSAGES
#2 AS THE HEAT IS BEHIND US.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DAILY THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY, GENERALLY FAVORING
AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS, WITH VARYING DEGREES OF SEVERE AND FLOOD
THREATS.
2) WEDNESDAY IS THE PICK DAY OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING JUST ABOVE NORMAL AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY PLANNED FOR THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WITH PLENTY
OF HEAT AND MOISTURE TO MAKE FOR ROBUST CONVECTION. IMPACTS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH WET MICROBURSTS PRODUCING STRONG COLD
POOLS THAT WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP. DCAPE VALUES
ABOUT WHERE THEY WERE YESTERDAY ABOVE 1000 J/KG WHILE FLOW IS
AROUND 20 KNOTS. NAM 3KM AND RREFS HAVE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR
DEPICTIONS ON TIMING AND AERIAL EXTENT OF STORM INITIATION OVER
EASTERN OHIO BY MID AFTERNOON THEN MOVING INTO WESTERN PA AND
NORTHERN WV THOUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DAMAGING WIND AND LIGHTNING ARE THE PRIMARY IMPACTS. THE ONLY
GOOD NEWS IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT WILL BE NO HEAT HEADLINES
ARE FORESEEN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN SUNDAY. THIS ALLOWS
A STRONGER BELT OF MID LEVEL WINDS TO BE OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR
INCREASE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. NOT TO MENTION, A PLUME OF
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR TWO INCHES. THIS
WILL INTRODUCE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH STORMS. EVEN THOUGH WE
HAVE BEEN DRY FOR SEVERAL DAYS, URBAN AREAS IT DOESN'T MATTER AS
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN AN HOUR IS ALL IT TAKES. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE WOULD BE
FAR SOUTHWEST PA AND NORTHERN WV. THAT COULD INCREASE IN
COVERAGE DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
MONDAY AND NOW EVEN INTO MOST OF TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
STORM IS HIGHEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AREAWIDE WITH DOWNPOURS
LIKELY. A GRADUAL SHIFT TO DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN OHIO THEN MOVING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.
WEDNESDAY SUNSHINE AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF A FRONT
LATER THURSDAY.
AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WILL FEATURE SOME IFR AND BELOW CIGS
AT FKL AND DUJ THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z THIA MORNING BEFORE
IMPROVING. AFTER THIS, VFR WILL PREVAIL UNTIL AFTERNOON
CONVECTION PRODUCES SOME RESTRICTIONS INTO THE EVENING. BY THE
20Z TO 21Z TIMEFRAME, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM'S WILL, BEGIN
DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS AT THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 22Z AND 04Z AS IFR AND BELOW CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY 06Z. THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
FOR FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP BY 08Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
VFR FAVORED THROUGH THE WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WHILE UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AMID THE APPROACH/PASSAGE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. EACH DAY SEES INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THAT ARE CAPABLE OF IFR HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY, ERRATIC
WINDS.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ007-013-014-
020-022-077.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ021-
029-031-073-075.
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ057>059-068-069.
WV...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ001.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
WVZ002>004-012-021-509.
DISCUSSION...MCMULLEN
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
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